Election primer: What to know heading into the 2024 primary

There’s no way around it: This year’s Pennsylvania primary lacks much intrigue.

The presidential contenders from both major parties clinched their nominations weeks ago. The state’s U.S. Senate race also has only one nominee for each party: incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican David McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO. Most U.S. House races in the state don’t have riveting competition.

But a handful of contests in the Pittsburgh region are competitive, most prominently the battle between Democratic U.S. Rep. Summer Lee and challenger Bhavini Patel, an Edgewood councilwoman. The victor in that matchup, as well as those in a handful of local races for the state Legislature, will very likely win their seats come November.

Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University in central Pennsylvania, predicts low turnout.

“It is unconventional to have a primary that is very predetermined, but in this case it is what we have,” Dagnes said.

Dagnes said most Pennsylvania races are just about finalizing the title card for high-stakes showdowns in November. Pennsylvania is the biggest battleground state in the presidential contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and the winner of the Senate race could determine which party controls the chamber.

Turnout could determine where the presidential campaigns will focus their spending heading into the general election, Dagnes said.

Local races to watch

The election for Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District between Lee, D-Swissvale, and Patel is the spring’s marquee matchup.

The seat covers the city of Pittsburgh, parts of southern and eastern Allegheny County, the Mon Valley and Westmore­land County communities such as Murrysville, North Huntingdon, Penn Township, Sewickley Township, Jeannette and parts of Hempfield.

The primary victor likely will win the seat in November, as Republican challenger James Hayes will have a tough task upsetting a Democrat in an overwhelmingly Democratic district.

In the state House’s 32nd District — which covers Penn Hills, Oakmont, Verona and parts of Plum — two Democrats face off with no Republican on the ballot, all but ensuring the primary will determine who holds the seat next year.

The candidates are state Rep. Joe McAndrew, D-Penn Hills, and challenger Pauline Calabrese, a family law attorney, former Penn Hills School Board member and two-term mayor.

The 34th District also features two Democrats squaring off and no Republican candidate. The race to represent Pittsburgh eastern neighborhoods and nearby suburbs pits Ashley Comans, a Wilkinsburg school board member, against state Rep. Abigail Salisbury, D-Swissvale.

Two Republicans are going toe to toe in the 55th District, with no Democrat running, meaning the winner will probably assume the seat.

State Rep. Jill Cooper, R-Murrysville, is being challenged by Jamie Lingg, a Murrysville Council member. The district includes Arnold, Avonmore, Bell Township, Delmont, Export, Loyalhanna, Murrysville, New Alexandria, New Kensington, Oklahoma, Salem, Upper Burrell, Washington and portions of Derry Township and Lower Burrell.

Low enthusiasm

Local election officials expect low turnout, peaking at around 35% in Allegheny County, according to David Voye, Allegheny County’s election division manager. It might be even lower, around 30%, in Westmoreland County, predicted Election Bureau Director Greg McCloskey.

If accurate, both estimates would be lower than what the counties experienced during the 2022 primary.

Dagnes said presidential elections should normally have higher turnout, even in primaries. She noted that 2022 had several competitive races for U.S. Senate and governor, but she said this year’s projected primary turnout is anemic.

“We should be looking at turnout as enthusiasm,” she said. “And there is not a lot of enthusiasm for this election.”

The presidential campaigns will be watching the primary closely to determine exactly where in Pennsylvania to focus advertising and other efforts to increase turnout, Dagnes said.

Counting the votes

Allegheny County is arguably gold standard in Pennsylvania when it comes to tallying mail-in votes. In the past few elections, virtually all mail-in votes were tabulated shortly after polls closed.

In Westmoreland County, officials said they expect to release the first batch of results about 8 p.m. and finish counting by 10 p.m.

Those following election results should remember that mail-in ballots are counted first. In-person ballots trickle in later, and it usually takes a few hours after polls close to finish tallying them.

Mail-in voters tend to support different types of candidates, so early vote tallies can cause some confusion.

In both Democratic and Republican primaries, more traditional candidates tend to do better among mail-in voters compared to candidates closer to each party’s flank. So the moderate candidates appear to start out in the lead as mail-in votes are counted, but then candidates further from the center appear to gain ground as in-person votes are counted.

Staff writer Rich Cholodofsky contributed to this report.