Pittsburgh Penguins training camp has opened. They narrowly missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons and haven’t won a playoff series since 2018.
Their expectations are hardly illuminating. The Penguins figure to be on the fringe of contention for the postseason, with a precipitous drop more likely than a remarkable climb.
For things to go well, here’s what has to happen:
• The power play must excel. It finished a disastrous 30th in the NHL last season with a 15.3% conversion rate but has the components to do much better. If the power play leaps into the league’s top 10, the Penguins should make the playoffs. That’s the most obvious shortcut.
New assistant coach David Quinn will guide the man-advantage unit. But Sidney Crosby must take control. He has to be selfish and do what’s best for him. Because that would be best for the power play.
Crosby must play on the right half-wall. Don’t rotate and overcomplicate. Crosby needs to be on the right half-wall like Mario Lemieux was on the left half-wall for 17 seasons. He needs to serve as the reset point and distributor. The power play needs to go through him. That can’t happen if he’s down low.
This displaces Evgeni Malkin from his preferred spot. Too bad. At this point, you could fair-catch Malkin’s one-timer. If it’s right half-wall or bust, put Malkin on the second unit.
This isn’t a debate. If the Penguins do anything besides this, they’re wrong. Let the best player take charge. Especially when the gap between him and others is widening.
• Tristan Jarry needs to prove himself as the No. 1 goalie. That’s not automatic, not least because he lost the job to Alex Nedeljkovic for last season’s stretch run.
Nedeljkovic battles, but Jarry has more talent. Jarry made his NHL debut in 2017, so it might be too late to demand consistency. But Jarry maximizing his superior ability is what the Penguins need.
If Jarry treads sewage and falls into a rotation with Nedeljkovic, the Penguins goaltending won’t be good enough and the team will tread sewage, too.
Jarry didn’t appear too upset when he lost the starting job last year. The dressing room reportedly wasn’t crazy about that. Jarry needs to be more dynamic, both in performance and presence. Then again, it’s unfair to expect him to be Marc-Andre Fleury. Different class.
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• Erik Karlsson must be better. The three-time Norris Trophy winner as the NHL’s best defenseman arrived in Pittsburgh via a huge trade before last season but was a fraction of his prior self.
Karlsson isn’t doing great right now, either: He played in the pre-training camp golf tournament but wasn’t ready for the start of practice. Maybe he got hurt pushing a blocking sled.
Karlsson’s defensive problems are great, and they are many.
But that wasn’t what went wrong for him last season. Karlsson had just 56 points, down from 101 the season prior. He was also a big part of mangling the power play.
Karlsson’s salary cap is $11.5 million. He needs to live up to that. Karlsson might feel he’s part of an ensemble cast in Pittsburgh, but he needs to excel.
• The Penguins have to do right by player development.
For example: The top young player in camp is winger Rutger McGroarty, 20, Winnipeg’s first-round pick in 2022 and acquired via trade this past summer. He’s a top-six talent.
If McGroarty isn’t going to play in the Penguins’ top six, he should go to the team’s minor-league affiliate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and play in the top six there. He’d be wasted in Pittsburgh if he just plays eight to nine minutes per game in the bottom six or gets benched when he makes a mistake.
The same applies to speedy winger Ville Koivunen, 21. But he’s less likely to make the Penguins. McGroarty and Koivunen shouldn’t be asked to do bottom-six things: Chip-and-chase, etc.
This is a challenge for coach Mike Sullivan, who has given veterans too much favor in the latter part of his tenure. The Penguins can’t get younger if the coach won’t let them. But now, if Sullivan doesn’t acquiesce to youth where possible, GM Kyle Dubas has to step in.
• In that vein, the most unfixable problem the Penguins have is their bottom six. It’s going to be old and unproductive. There’s plenty to pick from, but it’s mostly rotten.
Hall of Famer Phil Esposito put it best during an impromptu chat in the PPG Paints Arena elevator a few years back: Don’t have 30-year-olds in your bottom six because they’re not hungry. But the Penguins’ bottom six has too many on the wrong side of 30, including Noel Acciari, Lars Eller and Kevin Hayes.
Perhaps that could be diluted by using Vasily Ponomarev, 22. And by utilizing either Michael Bunting (29) or Drew O’Connor (26) as a third-line anchor by way of making room for McGroarty in the top six. But it’s more likely that Sullivan will give the old bottom-six guys too much ice.
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So those are the biggest issues as the Penguins prepare.
There are some lesser things: For example, can Ryan Graves rebound from a bad first year with the Penguins and justify his $4.5 million cap hit? But Graves looks to be a third-pair defenseman now, and worrying about that role and those minutes is a minor concern.