The Pittsburgh Penguins will either just miss or just make the playoffs, just like the last two seasons. They will go an eighth straight year without winning a playoff series.
That’s what happens when you keep bringing back basically the same team and same approach. The Penguins have slowed but still try to play fast. (To be fair, it’s tough to do otherwise. In today’s NHL, a typical game is a series of sprints for 60 minutes.)
Don’t worry about Sidney Crosby. You can count on the captain.
At 37, Crosby is still among hockey’s five best players. He still tangibly impacts winning, is almost never why the Penguins lose and is incapable of disappointing for effort. His ravenous hunger despite all he’s done speaks volumes about the player and the man.
Evaluating Crosby’s teammates isn’t as simple.
Goaltender Tristan Jarry is an enigma. Lots of tools, no toolbox. He might be one of the NHL’s top 10 goalies. But that’s because the league might not have 10 above-average goalies.
Jarry makes every save but the one he has to. When he lost the starting job to Alex Nedeljkovic near the end of last season, he seemed unconcerned. Like he’s not motivated by being pushed or challenged.
Goalie is a position for the odd, but Jarry is odd in an odd way. He nonetheless must be the No. 1 netminder. Talent makes him the Penguins’ best bet.
At 37, Kris Letang remains reliable, a very good skater, a physical presence and a one-man breakout. Letang is still the Penguins’ best defenseman.
What’s that say about Erik Karlsson?
Since arriving in Pittsburgh, Karlsson hasn’t approached the level of excellence his $11.5 million salary cap hit and three Norris Trophies dictate. His production dipped. He defends recklessly. He’s rotten on the power play. Karlsson hasn’t outperformed Letang, whose cap figure is just $6.1 million.
Marcus Pettersson is solid defensively. Matt Grzelcyk might be, too, but played bad in Boston last season.
Both will too often join the rush because coach Mike Sullivan thinks one size fits all when it comes to tactics. That doesn’t get defensive defensemen to make plays. It puts them out of position.
(Random disclaimer: This column is all over the place. It has to be. Because the Penguins are all over the place.)
Defenseman Ryan Graves told the media they made it seem like he played worse than he did last season. No, we didn’t.
If Sullivan goes purely by performance and not cap hit, Graves won’t be in the lineup on opening night. (Graves costs the Penguins’ cap $4.5 million per on a contract that runs through 2029.)
Top-six winger Bryan Rust is hurt, so Rutger McGroarty made the team. McGroarty, Winnipeg’s first-round pick in 2022, was acquired during the offseason.
McGroarty, 20, had a good preseason and should provide the Penguins a needed injection of youth and energy. But he needs to be in a top-six role and play top-six minutes. If McGroarty is only going to get bottom-six scraps in Pittsburgh, he should go to the Penguins’ Wilkes-Barre/Scranton farm team for the sake of his development. (That will happen once Rust is healthy.)
McGroarty is a legit offensive talent. Don’t make him chip and chase. Don’t teach him to be meh.
As for the Penguins’ bottom six, they’re mostly the same guy. A bit bigger than usual: 6-foot-5, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2. But I’m not optimistic.
Journeyman winger Anthony Beauvillier is fast but nothing else. (That might get him a shot on Crosby’s line. Which won’t go well.)
At 38, Evgeni Malkin is still a point collector. But can he avoid being a liability in the neutral and defensive zones? Probably not, because Malkin won’t ever adjust the way he plays.
Will Malkin be a major factor on the power play? Probably not, because his one-timer has slowed. Goalies made a fair catch on a couple of them last season.
Rickard Rakell is healthy and looks dangerous. He seems willing to shoot on the power play and not overpass. He should bounce back after scoring just 15 times last season.
The Penguins’ top six includes a few really good third-liners.
Sullivan is still a great coach. But maybe not for this group. He doesn’t seem to see the Penguins as they really are. (It’s up to president of hockey ops/GM Kyle Dubas to do that.)
Writing and talking about the power play is wearisome. It finished as the NHL’s third worst last season despite talent that merits far better, and looked even lousier than that. Maybe new assistant coach David Quinn will fix it. But probably not. The players have to listen for that to happen.
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Some advice to the Penguins: Don’t drop points because you had fun in Las Vegas, or put undue emphasis on the rookie party or dads trip, or because you mourned a traded teammate. The margin for error isn’t there. Every game counts. It’s not like it used to be. The Penguins missed the playoffs by three points last season, by two the season before.
My prediction: The Penguins sneak into the playoffs. Huzzah.