Sunday's contest at PNC Park has the Pittsburgh Pirates (37-39) taking on the Tampa Bay Rays (37-40) at 1:35 PM ET (on June 23). Our computer prediction projects a close 5-4 win for the Pirates, so it should be a competitive matchup.

The Pirates will give the nod to Paul Skenes (4-0, 2.29 ERA), who is eyeing win No. 5 on the season, and the Rays will counter with Aaron Civale (2-5, 5.42 ERA).

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Pirates vs. Rays Game Info & Odds

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Pirates vs. Rays Score Prediction

  • Our pick for this game is Pirates 5, Rays 4.

Total Prediction for Pirates vs. Rays

  • Total Prediction: Over 8 runs

Pirates Performance Insights

  • The Pirates have played as the favorite in six of their past 10 games and have won four of those contests.
  • Pittsburgh and its opponents have combined to hit the over two times in its last 10 games with a total.
  • The Pirates have won 14, or 43.8%, of the 32 games they've played as favorites this season.
  • Pittsburgh has entered eight games this season favored by -159 or more and is 5-3 in those contests.
  • The Pirates have a 61.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in the majors with 306 total runs scored this season.
  • The Pirates have a 3.98 team ERA that ranks 16th across all league pitching staffs.

Rays Performance Insights

  • In six games as the underdog over the last 10 matchups, the Rays have posted a mark of 3-3.
  • When it comes to the over/under, Tampa Bay and its foes are 6-4-0 in its last 10 contests.
  • The Rays have been victorious in 11, or 39.3%, of the 28 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • Tampa Bay has a mark of 2-5 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +135 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Rays have a 42.6% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Averaging four runs per game (308 total), Tampa Bay is the 22nd-highest scoring team in MLB.
  • The Rays have the 24th-ranked ERA (4.43) in the majors this season.

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Pirates Schedule

Date Opponent Score Pitching Matchup
June 17 Reds W 4-1 Paul Skenes vs Carson Spiers
June 18 Reds L 2-1 Bailey Falter vs Nick Lodolo
June 19 Reds W 1-0 Mitch Keller vs Hunter Greene
June 21 Rays L 10-3 Carmen Mlodzinski vs Ryan Pepiot
June 22 Rays W 4-3 Jared Jones vs Zach Eflin
June 23 Rays - Paul Skenes vs Aaron Civale
June 24 @ Reds - Bailey Falter vs Carson Spiers
June 25 @ Reds - Mitch Keller vs Hunter Greene
June 26 @ Reds - TBA vs Andrew Abbott
June 28 @ Braves - Jared Jones vs Max Fried
June 29 @ Braves - Paul Skenes vs Spencer Schwellenbach

Rays Schedule

Date Opponent Score Pitching Matchup
June 18 @ Twins L 7-6 Aaron Civale vs Pablo Lopez
June 19 @ Twins W 3-2 Taj Bradley vs Joe Ryan
June 20 @ Twins W 7-6 Zack Littell vs Simeon Woods Richardson
June 21 @ Pirates W 10-3 Ryan Pepiot vs Carmen Mlodzinski
June 22 @ Pirates L 4-3 Zach Eflin vs Jared Jones
June 23 @ Pirates - Aaron Civale vs Paul Skenes
June 24 Mariners - Taj Bradley vs Bryan Woo
June 25 Mariners - Zack Littell vs Luis Castillo
June 26 Mariners - Ryan Pepiot vs George Kirby
June 28 Nationals - Zach Eflin vs Mitchell Parker
June 29 Nationals - Aaron Civale vs Jake Irvin

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dataskrive is a Tribune-Review freelancer. You can contact dataskrive at info@triblive.com.