As Major League Baseball reaches a decade in the Statcast era, advanced metrics are at the fingertips of fans, players and coaches alike.

One analytic arguably reigns supreme by virtue of its ubiquitous presence in discussing the sport today: exit velocity.

In the words of Pittsburgh Pirates designated hitter Andrew McCutchen, whose 16-year MLB career transcends the Statcast era: “Exit velocity is king.”

It isn’t difficult to conclude why exit velocity is so appealing for those outside of the clubhouse and front office.

Being able to assign cold, hard numbers to a baseball that’s cracked off the bat is, indeed, interesting.

“It’s the sexy thing and the one that we can attach to all the time,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said.

Pirates fans, in particular, have obvious incentive to keep close tabs on exit velocity, given a young star on the club is among MLB’s most exceptional talents when it comes to the metric.

When he ripped a 120.4 mph single May 21 against the San Francisco Giants, Oneil Cruz set a record for hardest-hit ball of the season.

By the end of the game, he outdid himself, launching a 121.5 mph home run.

As a rookie in 2022, Cruz blasted a ball off the Clemente Wall that clocked 122.4 mph, which remains the hardest-hit ball in the Statcast era, which started in 2015.

While appreciative that his power at the plate is putting his name in the same sentences as baseball-mashers such as Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, Cruz is mostly indifferent to exit velocity.

Frequently asked about his power and the eye-popping exit velocities, Cruz insists the metric is not something he chases.

“I don’t really pay attention to those numbers, being honest with you,” Cruz said through Pirates assistant coach and translator Stephen Morales. “I just try to make good contact and swing the way I do. That’s all it is. I don’t pay attention to those specific numbers. I just go, put a really good swing on it and get hard contact.”

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Some might assume that it had to have been many years ago, growing up in the Dominican Republic, when the now-6-foot-7 Cruz first reckoned with his own power.

In actuality, Cruz, once a top-25 prospect of the Los Angeles Dodgers, didn’t fully grasp his ability to crush baseballs until he debuted in the minor leagues.

Furthermore, not until after he joined the Pirates system (via a 2017 trade in exchange for reliever Tony Watson) was Cruz formally shown exit velocity figures.

“In the minor leagues, that’s when I figured out I could hit the ball really hard,” he said. “When I found out about the exit velo, I think I was playing Double-A or Triple-A not too long ago. (Coaches) showed it to me. Prior to that, I didn’t know how hard I was hitting the ball.”

There is a direct correlation between hitting the ball hard and increased batting average.

Per Statcast’s database of balls in play this season, batters collectively have compiled a .302 average or better when the exit velocity is at least 96 mph.

At 98 mph and above, the batting average jumps to at least .347.

Balls hit 105 mph or more produce at least a .605 average.

Of course, it would be flat-out wrong to suggest exit velocity is any sort of be-all end-all.

“I can hit three balls at 160 mph, and they can all be outs and hit three balls at 60 mph and they can all be hits,” said Pirates first baseman Rowdy Tellez. “That’s just the way it is.”

Added Shelton: “You’ll see pull-side ground balls that are hit at 110 (mph) that are right at the second baseman.”

Cruz hammers baseballs like few others, yet his traditional slash line of .248/.300/.432 is ordinary.

Cruz also strikes out in nearly 33% of his at-bats, putting him in the top 5% across baseball. The same applies to his swing-and-miss whiff rate (33.5%).

However, for all the less-refined aspects of his game, Cruz’s power, exemplified by exit velocity, offers hope in regards to the 25-year-old’s potential.

“(I) have every confidence that Oneil Cruz is going to — I don’t know if it’ll be this year or when it’ll be — but I’m fairly confident we’re going to look at one year in the near future where he’s done whatever it is, hit 40 homers or whatever puts him into the MVP-type conversation,” said Jonathan Mayo, prospects reporter for MLB and MLB Pipeline. “I believe that that’s going to happen.”

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Since their implementation leaguewide, advanced analytics have proved to be an annoyance to some in and outside of baseball.

Exit velocity, in particular, was ripped in May by commentator Michael Wilbon, who on ESPN’s “Pardon the Interruption” shared his thoughts on the metric specifically as it relates to evaluating Cruz.

“I guess people need this to become interested and more fascinated,” he said. “They go, ‘Oh, wow!’ Not only do I not go, ‘Oh, wow!’ (but) it has started the ruination of watching sports for me, numbers like this repeatedly put up on the screen day-in and day-out.”

Wilbon is far from alone.

Last year, commissioner Rob Manfred offered comments in concurrence with an anonymous MLB owner who said reliance on analytics is “an arms race to nowhere.”

“It is human nature for there to be resistance to change or new ideas,” Mayo said. “I think there’s often a desire to hold on to the past. The trick is to not let go of the history, because the history remains so phenomenal and rich and interesting. But you don’t have to let go of the history to understand that some of the things that are being used are good or useful.”

Various clubs certainly lean heavier into analytics than others.

For Shelton and his staff, the key is striking a balance between what analytics suggest and their own eyes are telling them.

“It’s more like checks and balances more than anything,” Shelton said. “I don’t think you rely 100% on what you see all the time if you have the information, and you don’t rely 100% on the information all the time.”

Justin Guerriero is a TribLive reporter covering the Penguins, Pirates and college sports. A Pittsburgh native, he is a Central Catholic and University of Colorado graduate. He joined the Trib in 2022 after covering the Colorado Buffaloes for Rivals and freelancing for the Denver Post. He can be reached at jguerriero@triblive.com.

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