Oregon is playing in the Big Ten championship game, the conference announced Tuesday. Seemingly, it took the Big Ten a couple days to figure out its own tiebreakers to determine that there was no scenario in which the Ducks would be left out out of the conference title game Dec. 7 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
But what about Penn State?
Penn State has a 1.8% chance to win the Big Ten, according to ESPN’s projections. That figure doesn’t suggest that the Nittany Lions would have no shot of beating Oregon, Indiana or Ohio State. The figure suggests that their path to Indianapolis is nearly impossible.
Oregon is in. Indiana is undefeated in Big Ten play. Ohio State’s lone loss is to Oregon, and the Buckeyes have a head-to-head result over Penn State, making things difficult for the Nittany Lions even if they beat Minnesota and Maryland to finish 11-1 overall and 8-1 in conference play.
But I know many of you read that 1.8% and thought of Lloyd Christmas in “Dumb and Dumber”: So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
So let’s indulge the improbable and map out how Penn State can compete for a Big Ten title — and, subsequently, a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
Before we start …
There are two scenarios in which the Nittany Lions can reach the Big Ten title game. But before we dive into those, let’s acknowledge a couple things of note.
• Oregon’s game against Washington next week does not matter for Penn State’s Big Ten hopes. The Ducks are in.
• Ohio State and Indiana control their own destinies. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers play each other on Saturday. If Ohio State wins and beats Michigan, it would have the first tiebreaker (head-to-head) over Penn State and Indiana. If Indiana wins and beats Purdue, it would be undefeated in conference play. If either team wins out, they’re facing Oregon.
Scenario No. 1
The Nittany Lions lose in every three-way Big Ten championship game tiebreaker with Ohio State and Indiana. But in an unlikely scenario, they can get in by avoiding a tiebreaker.
Indiana loses its final two games at Ohio State and at home against Purdue, and Ohio State loses against Michigan. That would give the Hoosiers and Buckeyes each two conference losses, pitting one-loss Penn State against Oregon in Indianapolis.
Problem is, Purdue is terrible.
Scenario No. 2
What if Ohio State beats Indiana then loses to Michigan and Indiana beats Purdue? One, Ryan Day would probably be fired. Two, that would leave Penn State and Indiana with one Big Ten loss and Ohio State, with two conference losses, out of the title game picture.
Let’s take a look at the two-way tiebreakers between Penn State and Indiana.
Because Penn State and Indiana didn’t play, the head-to-head tiebreaker is irrelevant. The second tiebreaker is record against common conference opponents. Penn State and Indiana each played UCLA, Maryland, Washington, Ohio State and Purdue. In this scenario, the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers went 4-1 against those teams with losses to Ohio State. That tiebreaker cancels out, and so does the third: result against next-best team in the standings (Ohio State).
So we go to a fourth tiebreaker, which benefits Penn State: best cumulative conference winning percentage of all opponents. To make this cleaner, let’s remove Penn State and Indiana’s common opponents from the equation. They’re a wash in this scenario.
Penn State’s different conference opponents (Illinois, Wisconsin, USC, Minnesota) are currently 14-15 with a 48.2% winning percentage. Indiana’s different conference opponents (Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern) are 9-19 with a 32.1% winning percentage.
Looking at the final two weeks of Big Ten play, it’s almost impossible for Penn State to lose this tiebreaker. All of Penn State’s different opponents would have to lose out, and every Indiana opponent would have to win out for the Hoosiers to overtake the Nittany Lions’ margin.
So in this scenario, if Ohio State beats Indiana and loses to Michigan and Indiana beats Purdue, the Nittany Lions would almost certainly face Oregon in the Big Ten title game.
I hope everyone followed all of that. Read it back a couple times if you need to. Because as convoluted as it is, this is Penn State’s best path to Lucas Oil Stadium.
Again, it’s unlikely. Michigan has been totally inept on offense. These are not the same Wolverines that won the national title a year ago for a myriad of reasons. But the rooting interests are clear for Penn State fans over the next two weeks.
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Root for Ohio State to beat Indiana, root for Michigan to beat Ohio State, and, obviously, root for the Nittany Lions to beat Minnesota and Maryland. Because none of this matters if they don’t.