It’s not as meaningful as it’s made out, but the U.S. and Canada figure to play a real slobberknocker of a hockey game Thursday night. Let’s preview the action with refreshing 4 Nations Face-Off notes. If you want blood, you got it.
• Sidney Crosby made the most Sidney Crosby play ever to snuff Finland’s late rally in Canada’s 5-3 win on Monday: He positioned himself perfectly, bowled over Finland’s Mikael Granlund at center ice, got up and put the puck in the empty net to clinch the win. It was the whole Crosby package: Hockey IQ, grit, precision, impact at crunch time. And he’s playing with one arm.
• Quinn Hughes is the best American-born defenseman. He was injured at tournament’s start. But if there was any chance that he’d be available before its end, Hughes should have been rostered. That’s a fail by U.S. management. (No manipulation of the rules should occur to add Hughes as a ringer.)
• Sure, the U.S. could use Hughes. But Zach Werenski has long been a hidden gem at Columbus and is playing as well as any defenseman in the tournament.
• U.S. defenseman Charlie McAvoy will miss the final. Wingers Matthew Tkachuk and Brady Tkachuk will play, but are banged up. The U.S. plays every shift like a five-car pileup. Maybe they should have picked their spots more judiciously, not least in Monday’s dead rubber vs. Sweden. Two people are in every collision.
• After Saturday’s U.S.-Canada game opened with three fights in nine seconds, I thought Canada might initiate and escalate if a rematch occurred. But I’ve reconsidered. This game is too important to Canada. They’ll play it straight. Like Reg Dunlop did, albeit temporarily. (Canada might want to see if Brady Tkachuk is willing to risk exacerbating his injury in a fight.)
• There’s big pressure on both teams in Thursday’s final. Canada says it’s their game. The U.S. says it’s their time. But individually, nobody shoulders a bigger burden than Canada’s best player, Connor McDavid. He’s not yet won anything big. He lost Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final with Edmonton last season, failing to bring the Cup to Canada for the first time since 1993. McDavid will be excoriated in his home country if Canada loses. Whether it’s his fault or not.
• Nathan MacKinnon might leave this tournament being considered a better player than McDavid.
• The U.S. faces little pressure beyond internal. No matter who wins and what happens, America will talk about the NFL on Friday. Like America does every day.
• It’s tough to figure who has the goaltending advantage. U.S. goalie Connor Hellebuyck won the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s best goalie last season but imploded in Winnipeg’s first-round playoff series vs. Colorado. Canada’s Jordan Binnington is meh, but won a Stanley Cup with St. Louis in 2019 and has better big-game experience. Binnington is far better at moving the puck. Hellebuyck has the edge, but it’s closer than most probably figure.
• Auston Matthews needs to produce if the U.S. is to win. The U.S. has a better team, but Canada is more top-heavy with firepower. Matthews has legit scoring pedigree, but zero goals in two games. (He missed Monday’s game with Sweden.) A goal (or more) by Matthews might tip the scales.
• Sweden didn’t lose a game in regulation. Finland beat Sweden and took Canada to squeaky-bum time. This tournament was closer than I initially figured. It would have been better still if Russia played.
• Erik Karlsson played great for Sweden. Which makes you wonder why he’s been so erratic for the Penguins. (Or maybe it doesn’t.)
• The patriotism angle is far overplayed. This isn’t Operation Overlord. It’s a hockey game. Canada’s Drew Doughty: “I’ll do anything for my country.” Short of joining Canada’s armed forces, I’d bet.
• The U.S. has an administrative edge. As Pierre McGuire pointed out, almost everyone involved has worked together, not least GM Bill Guerin and coach Mike Sullivan being connected through the Penguins organization. Canada’s coaching staff is composed of rivals. The U.S. seems more cohesively assembled and run, the faux pas with Hughes’ omission duly noted.
• Canada’s big edge wears N0. 87. He’s the rising tide that lifts all boats. It’s impossible to bet against him. Crosby will make a big play and Canada will win. MacKinnon pointed out that this is the first time Crosby is playing on a team composed of his biggest fans. That synergy will weave an electric web.