Somebody employed by the Pirates’ radio network says the team is talking to Paul Skenes about a long-term contract extension.
Breaking news or absolute fabrication? I know how I’m betting.
This report strikes me as fiction concocted to dilute negative PR from a trade deadline that reiterated the organizational philosophy of greed prioritized over winning. The Pirates have won 10 of 14, but there’s no buzz.
If Skenes was asked about it, he’d likely tell a polite lie.
It’s difficult to imagine one good reason why Skenes would commit to a sad-sack, penny-pinching franchise for one second more than necessary.
But if these talks really do exist, or could exist, here’s what Skenes should tell the Pirates:
“If you want to talk about an extension, fine. Let’s do that in January, after I see what you do in free agency and in trades. If you acquire a bunch of legitimate bats, let’s have a discussion. And I mean legitimate, not Dollar Tree. Not Spencer Horwitz.”
Skenes should call their bluff.
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If Skenes extended but the Pirates stayed impotent offensively, he’d maintain his current role: A show pony for a terrible team. Here to sell tickets and merchandise, not win.
Even if the Pirates do get bats, Skenes still shouldn’t sign.
You think Livvy Dunne wants to live in Pittsburgh forever? Her career is in Los Angeles or New York, too.
Sleeper bet: Every once in a while, Philadelphia gets a huge free agent. Like with Bryce Harper. The Phillies might make a big run at Skenes when the time comes.
It’s dumb to map out what an extension for Skenes might look like. Because it just isn’t going to happen.
Skenes’ arbitration awards in 2027, 2028 and 2029 figure to check in at an average of over $25 million and could skyrocket far above that. Juan Soto got $31.5 million in arbitration, Shohei Ohtani $30 million. Skenes could top those figures.
Next season Skenes is still due to play on the cheap. The Pirates would have to up the ante.
To get any years of Skenes’ free agency, well … Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler makes $42 million. That’s a good place to start.
Let’s say $180 million over five years. And that still seems low.
If Skenes doesn’t give up a year of his free agency, let’s say $120 million over four years. To buy out his arbitration. Again, that seems low.
This is pie in the sky because owner Bob Nutting would never commit $180 million to a single player. Or $120 million. He’s never paid his entire team over $100 million in a season. (Right now, Spotrac says the Pirates’ major-league payroll is $67.5 million.)
Skenes would get security against injury via a long-term deal.
But he got a $9.2 million signing bonus. Dunne’s reported net worth is $6 million, and she’s still earning.
Anyway, Skenes’ talent is so overwhelming that even Tommy John surgery wouldn’t scare off the big-budget teams. He’d still get peak money.
Skenes isn’t signing long-term with the Pirates.
If you believe he will, you’re stupid.
If he does, he’s stupid.
The Pirates will never win. If Skenes wants to win, he can’t stay in Pittsburgh.