Expecting Joe Burrow to play perfect football for six weeks after returning from a turf toe injury and lead the Bengals to the playoffs was always a tall order, even though they nearly managed it last year by winning their last five games.
The harsh reality is that unless Burrow plays error-free football, Cincinnati’s chances of winning are slim given its porous defense.
Cincinnati (4-9) has just a 1% playoff chance after Sunday’s 39-34 loss at Buffalo. The Bengals need both the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) and Baltimore Ravens (6-7) to falter, and must win out themselves, to claim the AFC North via a three-way head-to-head tiebreaker.
“I know we’re up against the wall here with whatever our opportunities are, but we got a big home game this week in the division, so we’ve got to be able to pick ourselves up and find a way to respond,” coach Zac Taylor said.
The defeat to the Bills marked the seventh time in two seasons — and the third game this year — where Cincinnati has scored at least 30 points and lost.
The Bengals also became the first team to lose at least three games in consecutive seasons in which they scored at least 34 points. The only other squads to do that in a season were the 2002 Kansas City Chiefs and 1985 San Diego Chargers.
After two weeks of improvement in run defense and tackling, Cincinnati’s earlier problems resurfaced. Poor tackling and lapses in run defense again hampered the team.
Buffalo had 183 rushing yards as James Cook and Josh Allen both had at least 78 yards. Allen’s 17-yard scramble up the middle on third-and-15 with 1 minute, 54 seconds remaining allowed the Bills to run out the clock.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Bengals had 13 missed tackles Sunday after having 12 combined the past two weeks.
The sixth pick-6 of Burrow’s career couldn’t have come at a worse time. The 63-yard interception return came when Buffalo ran a corner blitz, and Bills cornerback Christian Benford jumped the route on a hot read. The second pick came on a tipped pass.
Given the wintery conditions, Burrow’s 264 passing yards and three touchdowns were solid. However, earlier missed opportunities — such as failing to hold a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead against the Jets on Oct. 26, or missing a key tackle in the final minutes against Chicago a week later — have left the Bengals with little room for error.
As a result, the Bengals are assured their first losing record since 2020 and are likely to miss the postseason for the third straight year, despite boasting one of the league’s best quarterback and receiving units.
“Obviously, we’re not where we want to be, as a team or an organization, 4-9 is not good. But we got four games to go and show high-level execution, high-level playmaking,” Burrow said. “I’m going to relish the opportunity to go out and play with these guys, and continue to try to put on a show for everybody watching. I hope that comes across, and I hope that I know I’m going to continue to work hard to put myself in a good position to make plays.”
What’s working
The Bengals were 10 of 12 on third down, with an 83.3% success rate, their best since 1991. The previous high was 77.8% (14 of 18) in a 2007 win over Tennessee.
What needs help
Covering tight ends remains a major weakness for Cincinnati’s defense. Buffalo’s tight ends had 11 catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns, exposing this ongoing problem.
Stock up
TE Mike Gesicki had a season-high six receptions for 86 yards and his first touchdown.
Stock down
S Geno Stone, who came into the game tied for the league lead with 18 missed tackles, had three more, including one on Allen’s key third-and-15 run.
Injuries
DE Trey Hendrickson (hip/pelvis) has missed five straight games. CB PJ Jules left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. Higgins returned after two concussion evaluations.
Key numbers
1-8: Cincinnati’s record in out-of-division games.
60.8%: Decrease in Cincinnati’s win probability percentage after Burrow’s pick-6 (from 77% to 16.2%). That is the single biggest win probability swing on a play outside of the final 2 minutes since 2016.
What’s next
Next up, the Bengals host AFC North rival Baltimore, currently 6-7 and one game out of the division lead after losing 27-22 to the Steelers. Cincinnati will try to sweep the season series for the first time since 2021 following its 32-14 win at Baltimore on Thanksgiving night.