When December dawned, the Pittsburgh Penguins were one of the NHL’s surprise teams, off to a 14-7-5 start, flirting with the top of the Eastern Conference standings, defying the preseason predictions that pegged them as also-rans at best.
Less than three weeks later, the Penguins are trapped in an 0-3-4 death spiral, their longest losing streak since the start of the 2022-23 season, tumbling to sixth place in the Eastern Conference wild card standings.
So what happened? Let’s take a look.
Trouble in net
The foundation of the Penguins’ great start was rock-solid goaltending.
As of Dec. 4, before the losing streak started, the Penguins had a team save percentage of .905.
Tristan Jarry was off to a sizzling 9-2 start (.913). Artur Silovs had his struggles at times, but he was keeping his head above water at 4-4-4 (.898). Sergei Murashov had a nifty little 1-1 cameo (.913).
The leading cause of their losing streak might be the flip side of that coin. Their team save percentage is .849 during the skid.
Jarry went 0-1-1 (.885) in his last two starts before being traded. His replacement, Stuart Skinner, gave up five goals on 22 shots in his Penguins debut against Edmonton.
Silovs has been especially leaky, going 0-1-2 (.859). Even the talented rookie Murashov was dinged for five goals on 36 shots in a loss to Utah.
Of course there are a number of team-wide factors that contribute to the success or failure of goaltenders, but shots allowed totals haven’t changed much. The Penguins allowed 28.8 shots per game before the skid started and 28.0 shots per game since.
Somebody’s just got to make a save.
Not so special
If the cornerstone of the hot start was goaltending, a supporting pillar was special teams.
Through Dec. 4, the Penguins were connecting on 34.4% of their power plays with a penalty kill success rate of 84.8. Both were among the league’s best figures.
Since then, they’re still decent on the power play at 21.4%, but the penalty kill has gone in the tank with a 68.2% success rate.
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and their Edmonton pals are responsible for a lot of that math, but the fact remains: The way the Penguins roster is constructed, special teams has to be a plus and it’s been a minus.
Fizzling out
At the risk of belaboring an obvious point that was hammered home after a pair of third-period collapses at home last weekend, the Penguins have fizzled late in games during their slump.
They’ve actually outscored opponents 6-5 in the first period of the last seven games. They’re playing fairly even in the second period, being outscored 9-7.
In the third period and overtime, they’re getting caved in 16-7.
Lineup attrition
Who would have figured that the loss of 39-year-old Evgeni Malkin, whose absence due to an undisclosed injury corresponds directly to the losing streak, would hammer the Penguins so hard?
In Malkin’s absence, the Penguins’ offense hasn’t completely been shut down. Bryan Rust and Erik Karlsson have a point per game during the skid. Anthony Mantha and Sidney Crosby are right behind with six points.
But the top line hasn’t immediately clicked since Rickard Rakell returned from injury four games ago, the young forwards in the lineup are contributing sporadically, like young forwards do, and there are a number of veteran passengers helping out little.
The Penguins apparently need the kind of spark the fiery Malkin can provide.
The wrong answer
A popular scapegoat during the losing streak among a portion of Penguins fans is defenseman Kris Letang. The numbers, however, don’t really bear out the criticism he has received.
Over the last seven games, the Penguins have outscored opponents 7-5 when Letang has been on the ice in five-on-five situations.
The case against Letang is more based on the eye test than actual results on the ice.
The bright side
The Eastern Conference is a bit of a mess. The Carolina Hurricanes, with 46 points, look to be the class of the conference.
The other 15 teams all have between 42 and 34 points in the standings, and the Penguins are in the middle of the pack with 37 points.
All it takes to climb to the top of the parity pile is a decent week or two.