There are things you can set your watch by, things that are as predictable as sunrise.
Your child will look at you like you are speaking Aramaic when you ask if his room is clean. The government might not pass a budget on time, but your tax bill will appear with magical precision. The Pittsburgh Pirates will be just depressingly disappointing.
In recent years, one of the most resolute truths — more than gravity or conservation of mass — has been what might be called “The Law of Equal and Opposite Political Position.”
It plays, of course, on the scientific idea of equal and opposite reaction. A rocket’s boosters ignite, sending fiery force downward, causing the rocket itself to travel up.
Politically, it is just as mathematical. If the majority of Republicans support something, all Republicans support it, causing all Democrats to oppose. The reverse is just as true.
It seems like forever since there has been any genuine mystery in the way votes have gone in Congress. With the exception of selecting a Speaker of the House, votes have checked boxes to make it appear the legislative bodies are functioning according to plan.
In reality, the parties have held the process hostage for far too long. Little ever comes to pass without everyone knowing in advance exactly what the outcome will be. If a vote has been scheduled, the outcome is assured.
Even with the rare jaw-dropping occurrence, like the vote to release the files regarding Jeffrey Epstein, all wrangling took place long before the vote and any shock was experienced offstage. By the time the House vote was called, the unanimity was set in stone.
That’s why a new example is a surprise. On Wednesday, four House Republicans — including Pennsylvania’s Robert Bresnahan, Brian Fitzpatrick and Ryan Mackenzie — broke ranks and stepped across the aisle. They joined with Democrats to force a vote on Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire in two weeks.
Let’s be clear. This is no guarantee the subsidies will pass. It’s not even a guarantee the four GOP members will vote to extend the subsidies. It’s unlikely to pass the Senate if it does. But even voting to allow the issue to move to a vote is a victory for the process.
At the same time, U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Braddock, has gained much attention over the last year for more agreement with Republicans on some key issues, including the Israel-Gaza war and immigration. This week, he took a position supporting President Donald Trump’s statements regarding blockading Venezuela’s oil.
Fetterman has been highly unpredictable since taking office in 2023, and faced plenty of criticism within his party. However, there should be space for a Democrat to voice differing views — and votes — within the caucus, and that’s clearly the lane Fetterman has picked.
While majority whips and political pundits may be frustrated to have their predictable apple carts upended, this is how the process is supposed to work.
Issues should come to the floor for debate and vote without absolute certainty about what would be said and what votes would be cast. This should not be science. It should be judgment and decision, with someone making a pitch and someone taking a swing and the score reflecting the quality of the play.
But hopefully they will all do it better than the Pirates.