No one wants to go to the hospital. But sometimes it’s the best thing for you.
That’s the notion behind my quarterly Casualty List. It contains stocks that have been roughed up in the latest quarter, and that I think can recover and thrive.
My Casualty List picks from a year ago returned 61.08%, well ahead of the 17.22% return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index.
Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (HII), a military ship builder, led the list with a 110% return. It benefitted from increased military spending and heightened international tensions.
Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU), the largest U.S. coal mining company, rose 88%. The Trump administration has supported the coal industry, and the nation’s energy appetite has grown, thanks mostly to data centers, which need lots of electricity.
Nucor Corp. (NUE), the largest steelmaker in the U.S., also did well, rising 40%. It benefitted from tariffs on foreign steel, among other factors.
The laggard was D.R. Horton Inc., the nation’s largest homebuilder, which returned 5.6%. Home purchases have been dampened by unpleasant mortgage rates.
Long-Term Record
The Casualty List you’re reading is the 91st one I’ve compiled. One-year returns can be calculated for 87 of the lists, and the average return has been 14.87%. That beats the average return for the Standard & Poor’s 500, which has averaged 11.6%.
Of my 87 columns, 55 showed a profit, but only 40 beat the index.
And now, here are five stocks that were banged up in the fourth quarter, and that I think deserve a spot on my Casualty List.
PayPal
Down 36% over the past year, PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) looks enticing to me at about $57 a share, which works out to a modest 11 times earnings.
PayPal is a leading online payment system, but it has lots of competition, including Shopify, Stripe, Venmo and others. The company has grown its revenue 17% a year for a decade. Last year was slower, but revenue still increased by almost 12%.
Most analysts give the stock a tepid “hold” rating, which is often a euphemism for “sell.” Yet those same analysts have an average price target of $75 for the stock, which would mean about a 30% gain.
TaskUs
Slaughtered in the fourth quarter, TaskUs Inc. (TASK) fell almost 34% when a proposal to take the company private fizzled. Based in New Braunfels, Texas, TaskUs provides outsourced customer service for a variety of companies, and content moderation for tech platforms.
TaskUs’s client list has included Meta, Netflix, Uber and Zoom. Revenue growth has slowed but remains brisk. The stock sells for 13 times recent earnings.
Only seven Wall Street analysts follow TaskUs, and only one of them recommends it. Yet again, the price targets tell a more optimistic story. The average price targe is nearly $16 a share, up from the current price of less than $12.
Crane NXT
Spun off from Crane Co. in 2023, Crane NXT Co. (CXT) makes micro-optics technology used to authenticate currency or documents, and for other purposes. One big application is in vending machines. The stock fell more than 29% in the fourth quarter on a revenue-growth disappointment.
Revenue was about $1.6 billion in 2025. Analysts look for $1.7 billion in 2026 and $1.8 billion in 2027. That doesn’t sound so bad to me. The stock sells for about 12 times estimated profits for 2026.
Itron
I also like Itron Inc. (ITRI), based in Liberty Lake, Wash. It makes equipment to measure and manage energy and water use. The stock was pummeled for a 25% loss in the fourth quarter. Weaker bookings and a cut in guidance spurred the decline.
Analysts see better things ahead. Of 13 analysts who follow Itron, 11 recommend it. The average one-year price target is about $140, up from about $100 now.
PVH
Finally, I recommend PVH Corp. (PVH), which makes clothing sold under the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger grands. Its shares fell about 20% in the fourth quarter and are down 33% in the past year.
What I like about PVH is the stock is plain old cheap. It sells for 10 times recent earnings, and less than six times the earnings analysts expect this year. It goes for 0.37 times sales and 0.61 times book value. Those are rock-bottom ratios.
Disclosure: I own none of the stocks discussed in today’s column personally. I own D.R. Horton for one client.