The numbers don’t lie:
• The Penguins are 10-2-2 since the NHL’s holiday break.
• The Penguins have scored the first goal in each of those 10 wins. (They don’t come out flat like the Steelers.)
• The Penguins are 25-14-11. Second in the Metropolitan Division. Second-fewest regulation losses in the Eastern Conference.
• The Penguins have the NHL’s seventh-best goal differential at plus-16.
Imagine if they were even decent at shootouts. (They’re 1-7 in that phase of the game.)
Here’s why the Penguins are better than expected:
• It’s mostly about the captain, Sidney Crosby. Crosby is still one of the NHL’s top five players, even at 38, and wasn’t going to allow the Penguins to bottom out. Quite the opposite, as it develops. There’s never been a better 38-year-old hockey player. Superior to Tom Brady at the same age? Could be. And Crosby’s will might trump his skill. He’s tireless, unyielding, simply incredible. There aren’t enough superlatives. Crosby should be NHL MVP. If he had been on the 1983-84 Penguins, they might have made the playoffs.
• Tristan Jarry isn’t the goalie. Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs do OK as Jarry’s replacements. But since Jarry’s egregious turnover blew a playoff series vs. the New York Islanders in 2021, he was the Penguins’ face of failure, not to be trusted, and should have long ago been ditched. Getting Jarry’s overpaid backside out of that blue paint felt like a new beginning. In that locker room, too, even if they didn’t know it. (Perhaps the Penguins figured it out Thursday, when they beat Jarry on the game’s second, third and fourth shots in a 6-2 win at Edmonton.)
• Evgeni Malkin is really on his toes. Playing hard and smart. Maybe it’s his lapsing contract, maybe it’s moving to wing, maybe it’s a Russian linemate in Egor Chinakhov. Why ask why? Thirty-nine points in 35 games might merit another season with the Penguins. (To play wing. Can’t block Ben Kindel at center.) At 39, Malkin has turned back the clock.
• Chinakhov can shoot and, just as important, does. Five goals in 12 games since joining the Penguins. Chinakhov can skate, too. It’s early days, but Chinakhov seems a legit top-six winger. Thank heaven his jerk coach in Columbus arbitrarily ran him out of town.
• Coach Dan Muse has implemented structure, especially in the neutral zone, that the Penguins haven’t tolerated for years. Players play to their strengths. It’s not one size fits all. The further Mike Sullivan gets away, the worse he looks. Maybe he’s only a great coach when he’s got the best team. He doesn’t have that with the New York Rangers. We’ll see about the Olympics.
• Erik Karlsson didn’t seem to be a Sullivan fan. Under Muse, Karlsson isn’t the three-time Norris Trophy winner as the NHL’s best defenseman that he once was. But, at 35, he’s close enough and a big contributor. (Though Karlsson still occasionally errs egregiously.)
• I hate the concept of “hero” fourth lines. Perceived to have a major role, get a lot of credit, etc. They mostly don’t exist. Except Noel Acciari, Connor Dewar and Blake Lizotte are exactly that. They provide energy, a degree of physicality and a surprising amount of skill. Dewar already has a career high of 11 goals. He nearly scored a highlight-reel goal at Calgary on Wednesday after a spectacular toe drag. It’s a heady brew.
• The Penguins have scoring depth: Six players are in double digits for goals, two more at nine. Colorado, the league’s highest-scoring team, also has six players with 10 goals or more. True, Nathan MacKinnon has 38 goals for the Avalanche. That’s 11 more than Crosby, the Penguins’ leader. But who would have figured Anthony Mantha for 16 goals and Justin Brazeau at 14?
• The Penguins are the only team in the NHL to have a top-five power play and a top-five penalty-kill: No. 3 for the former with a 27.4% conversion rate, No. 4 for the latter with a mark of 83.4. Each unit is as good as its number. Each is clinical and consistent.
• President of hockey ops/GM Kyle Dubas keeps hitting home runs: The Jarry deal. The Chinakhov trade. Drafting Kindel. Signing Brazeau, Mantha and Parker Wotherspoon. Past acquisitions like Tommy Novak have come good. Dubas’ plan keeps moving forward.
Are the Penguins for real?
What’s happening is a bit more shiny than fool’s gold, that’s for sure.