Last year’s Super Bowl was 24-0 Philadelphia before halftime. How did I stay interested in the game?
Gambling, my friends. Gambling.
I had bets all over the board. Big ones, little ones. Hefty ones. Mini ones. From conventional to exotic. From basic to bananas.
I did all that … to basically break even. It was a lot of work to not get very far. In fact, I think I lost a little.
I hit some good ones, such as telling you to bet on Kansas City to win the second half, and to bet on at least one two-point conversion to be attempted, and at least one to be made.
I told you, if you bet on Philly to win the game, bet on Jalen Hurts to be the MVP. Regardless, I told you to bet on Hurts to score a touchdown.
All of that happened. And then, well, there were a bunch of others that didn’t work out so well. Like, you know, picking K.C. to win the game.
In case you don’t remember, they, um, most assuredly did not (40-22).
The real kick in the ol’ nether-regions was when I told you to make a tiny bet on South Fayette’s Justin Watson to catch a touchdown pass at plus-1600 in hopes of stuffing your bank accounts.
He didn’t. However, Watson did catch a two-point conversion. Those were the gambling gods spitting right in my eye. Oddly, my betting app didn’t give me a hometown discount and count that as close enough.
Stunner, eh?
This year in our annual Super Bowl bets edition to wrap up “Football Footnotes” for 2025-26, I’m going to walk it back a little bit. Fewer bets, with maybe a little more icing on top of each one.
As always, these are suggestions. No guarantees. Invest wisely.
And based upon how sports betting usually works, you’d show incredible wisdom by not betting at all, especially not with me.
But that would make for a short column. So here we go. All these numbers (unless indicated otherwise) are from BetRivers.com.
• I really like the Seahawks to win the game. The money line is at minus-235; they are at minus-4½ (minus-112). I’m going to slide it to minus-4 at minus-120. That seems like a better number to me.
If it pushes, so what? We’ll still make enough bets that we are going up or going down.
I usually hate the over-under in the Super Bowl. I rarely play it. I’m not going to this year either at 45½ points. Gun to my head, I’ll go under. But this is a “walk away” in my book.
• When it comes to the MVP bet, if you like New England, don’t overthink it. Go with quarterback Drake Maye. If the Patriots do win, I’ll be really surprised if it’s not him. And he’s still coming in at plus-215. That’s very favorable.
So favorable, in fact, it might be a worthwhile hedge to pick him even if you think Seattle is going to win — just as a little buffer.
I suppose that the smart, conservative thing on the Seattle side is to just go with quarterback Sam Darnold at plus-125.
Eh, safe is death.
Roll the dice on Jaxon Smith-Njigba at plus-500. I’m a huge fan of his. He’s my favorite non-Steeler in the NFL right now.
At plus-500, he may be worth a swing on a big payout.
• Here’s a weird “other side of the coin” bet to consider on Smith-Njigba, though.
His over-under total is really high (93½ at minus-117). If you think the Patriots are going to do everything in their power to neutralize him, including maybe Christian Gonzalez on him all day plus some scheme help, strongly consider that under total.
If you think JSN is too good, I hear you. That said, the guy could go for 93 yards receiving, two scores, stay under that number, yet win the MVP.
Just something to consider.
• My favorite bet on the board might be over 5½ sacks. That’s both teams, for the whole game.
Maye has been sacked 15 times in the postseason. Darnold, five times in two games. New England has 12 sacks as a team over three playoff games.
OVER!
• Think one of those sacks (or pressures) may lead to a Maye turnover? I do.
Maye is at minus-137 to throw at least one pick. He’s at plus-340 to lose a fumble. I’ll play the interception bet, and maybe I’ll go small to win big on a lost fumble.
• If you want an individual sack artist, DeMarcus Lawrence is plus-114 to get at least half a sack for Seattle. He has three in his past four games. On New England’s side, Milton Williams had two sacks in last year’s Super Bowl for Philadelphia. He’s at plus-195 this year. Christian Barmore is at plus-295.
• Darnold throwing at least one touchdown pass feels like a lock. That’s why it is at minus-700. Not much to gain there.
If you want to bet on Darnold throwing at least two TDs, though, the money gets sharper at minus-114. I can live with that.
• I’m going to reboot my two-point conversion picks. It’s plus-155 that there will be at least one attempt. I love that one. It’s plus-300 that there will be at least one successful two-point conversion. I like that, but not as much.
• I couldn’t find good odds on “over/under one made field goal in the game.” But, I saw on DraftKings.com that you can get minus-130 on both teams making at least one field goal longer than a PAT (33 yards). Sure. I’ll take that.
• Cooper Kupp at minus-117 to go over 33½ receiving yards? Check please!
So there you go. Liquidate your 401(k)s. Cash in your child’s college fund. Break the piggy ba…
Uh, I mean, bet responsibly and consider this column for entertainment purposes only.
Listen: Jeff Erickson of RotoWire has some Super Bowl fantasy and gambling advice for us