Optimism abounds with the Pirates, mostly because of a few shiny new toys and not least because 19-year-old phenom Konnor Griffin is hitting bombs at spring training. Griffin will be in Pittsburgh sooner, not later, and the sooner the better.

But it feels like the fate of the Pirates in 2026 lies with two guys who were there last season.

Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds need to do more.

Preferably a lot more.

We keep waiting for Cruz to recognize his marvelous potential, to achieve to the level of his raw athleticism. Cruz hasn’t, not nearly. Despite being 27 and despite making his MLB debut in 2021. He’s no kid.

Cruz hit just .200 last season. His OPS dropped nearly 100 points from the season prior. He struck out 174 times.

Cruz not only has to be good, he has to be a star. If Cruz finally has a 30 homers/30 steals season like his ability dictates should be the norm, the Pirates will make the postseason.

As for Reynolds, 31, his numbers plummeted last year.

• Home runs dropped by eight.

• RBIs dropped by 15.

• OPS dropped by 71 points.

• Batting average dropped by 30 points.

• Struck out a career-worst 173 times.

That’s a pretty thorough collapse, especially for somebody who was an All-Star in 2024. Especially for somebody counted on to be an anchor.

Reynolds likely just had an off season and will bounce back.

Cruz is more of an enigma. If he doesn’t deliver, especially given the adrenaline of what promise this season holds for the Pirates, perhaps Cruz is what he is and will betray his talent indefinitely.

The buzz around the Pirates is mostly because of reigning and defending National League Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes.

But he can’t pitch every game.

Beyond Skenes, the rotation is shaky. Bubba Chandler has pitched just 31 1/3 big-league innings. Braxton Ashcraft has pitched just 69 2/3. There is no clear-cut No. 5 starter. There is no left-handed starter unless Hunter Barco sticks.

There’s every reason to feel good about Chandler and Ashcraft. But you don’t know till you know.

If Griffin starts the season in Triple-A, the bottom third of the batting order stinks. That, we do know.

The Pirates improved. But did they improve enough?

The Pirates are spending more. But are they spending enough?

Lots of eyes will be on new boys Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna.

But the Pirates’ fate might be more in the hands of Cruz and Reynolds. Two guys who have been there and not done that.