The Pirates are spending more. But are they spending enough?
The Pirates will be better. But how much better?
The Pirates went out and got three solid bats. But not Aaron, Clemente and Mays.
A lot is being assumed by cockeyed optimists and media fanboys.
But with Opening Day less than a week away, here’s what has to happen if the Pirates are to reach .500, let alone contend for a playoff berth:
• Paul Skenes won’t pitch every game. Last year, Skenes started 32 times and went 10-10. The Pirates’ record in those starts was 17-15.
That’s an absurd waste of a Cy Young Award winner and an ERA of 1.97.
That’s not on Skenes. Duh. The Pirates have got to hit for him.
To get drastic improvement in a logical fashion, the Pirates must win 75% of Skenes’ starts. If Skenes again starts 32 times, the Pirates need to win 24 of those games.
Skenes is a unicorn. The Pirates must maximize him if they’re going to get anywhere close to where they want to be. Jose Urquidy won’t pick up the slack.
• Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds have to excel, and certainly can’t stink.
Cruz was awful in 2025. He hit .200, OPS of .676, only 20 home runs and he struck out 174 times. A mammoth betrayal of his talent.
Reynolds wasn’t much better. He hit .245, OPS of .720, just 16 home runs and had 173 strikeouts. A mammoth betrayal of his paycheck, which jumps to $14.25 million this year.
Cruz and Reynolds are the Pirates’ two biggest offensive talents. They can’t be that bad again. (Here’s betting Reynolds will be better, but Cruz won’t. Cruz is what he is.)
• The Pirates can’t be paralyzed by left-handed pitching.
As this space has pointed out, the Pirates have four left-handed bats that are crucial to their production but can’t hit lefties: Cruz, Spencer Horwitz, Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn. Of that quartet, Lowe has the best career average against left-handed pitching at a mere .219.
Opposing managers might pluck a mediocre lefty from the bottom of their depth chart and try to beat Skenes, 2-1.
Right-handed hitting outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia is having a good spring training, batting .441 with two home runs in 34 at-bats. Perhaps he can carve out a bigger role.
• The Pirates’ bullpen appears to be a strength based on variety and depth. It’s got to live up to that.
It’s an interesting group, with flamethrowing lefties Mason Montgomery and Gregory Soto perhaps the most intriguing.
Here’s an excerpt from one scouting report on Soto: “Is most likely to hit one, walk two, and strike out three in an inning.”
Sounds like fun.
It’s a shame the Pirates couldn’t hold onto local product David Bednar, a proven closer who confirmed his worth pitching for the U.S. at the World Baseball Classic. But Dennis Santana is fine as a closer.
• For the Pirates to overachieve — and a playoff spot would be overachieving — manager Don Kelly has to figure out something we can’t see.
Whether it’s by hitting on proper and successful usage of Garcia, or speedy singles-hitting outfielder Jake Mangum, or juggling things correctly at catcher, or getting it right with the bullpen, or having the guts to occasionally go beyond pitch count, Kelly has to win some games.
If Kelly manages by rote and analytics — as most managers do — the Pirates aren’t good enough to make the postseason. Overachieving often means navigating a different path.
I haven’t mentioned Captain Obvious material like the starting rotation. It should be good. The talent is there. Skenes will be the best pitcher in MLB if he doesn’t run off and join the Air Force.
I haven’t talked about Konnor Griffin being in the Opening Day lineup. He won’t be.
Nick Gonzales might be the worst shortstop in baseball.
At third base, Jared Triolo has Ke’Bryan Hayes’ excellent glove but an even worse bat.
Catcher Henry Davis won’t hit better. No sense hoping.
Guarded optimism is reasonable, but there’s much to overcome. And there’s a lot that’s needed that’s non-negotiable.