They thought Clint Hurdle was nuts. They probably think I am, too.
Hurdle predicted 95 wins in 2013, with the Pirates mired in a 20-year losing streak.
I am predicting 86 wins in 2026, with the Pirates mired in a seven-year losing streak — and I am going to be every bit as right as he was (although the Pirates actually won just 94 in ’13, prompting me to tell Hurdle after a loss in the regular-season finale, “My column tomorrow is that your prediction was wrong.”).
The ’13 Pirates improved by 15 wins in their breakthrough season. This team will do precisely the same.
Am I asking for too much? I don’t think so.
At first blush, a 10-game improvement and a .500 record might sound pretty good to long-suffering Pirates fans.
At second blush, that would not nearly be good enough.
The Pirates need to make the playoffs to make this season a success — and that will likely require winning at least 86 games.
What if they win 86 and miss, you ask?
I’ll get back on that. Let’s just focus on 86. I chose the number because, in the four seasons since MLB went to a three wild-card format, the average wins for the final National League wild card was 85.75.
That’s why I like 86.
That’s why they need 86.
The last thing anybody wants to hear is the Pirates crowing over an 81-81 record, telling us they reached .500 again and did indeed improve by 10 games.
That would be true, of course, as they won 71 last season. But it would not be a fair baseline by which to measure, because they won 76 in each of the two seasons before that. You don’t get the benefit of sinking to a pathetic 71 wins and then measuring your success based on that.
The fair baseline is 76. Win at least 10 more than that before anybody labels this season a triumph of any kind.
I don’t care about the Vegas over/under win total, either. It has stayed around 78.5 and has risen as high as 79.5. Barely eclipsing it would qualify as a failure. The Pirates need to smash it.
They need to get to 86, and they will get to 86.
Here’s why:
• A radically improved lineup. Notice I didn’t say a “great” lineup. But there was only one way to go from the wretched offense they put on the field last season. They added a pair of 2025 All-Stars (Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn) and a new designated hitter (Marcell Ozuna) who finished fourth in the NL MVP vote just two years ago.
Granted, Ozuna is 35, but he’s a big reason I’m going with 86. He was still hot when last season began, despite a hip injury that continued to nag him for much of the season. The injury eventually took its toll, but Ozuna reportedly is healthy now. He played every game in 2024, too.
I’m expecting a bounce back. Even with last year’s downturn, Ozuna was better than Andrew McCutchen. I see 30-plus home runs here.
• Two other rebound candidates: Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz.
Reynolds had one outlier great season (2021) and one outlier awful season (2025). It only makes sense that he’d get back to being a .270 hitter with an OPS around .800 OPS and 22-25 home runs.
Cruz stunk last season and still hit 20 home runs and stole 38 bases. Nobody’s asking for Willie Mays, but how about his first 25-home run year? How about 90 runs?
• Star power. That means Paul Skenes and, sooner or later, Konnor Griffin.
Skenes might be the best pitcher on the planet. Griffin is the best prospect on the planet. He’s the kind of young, look-the-part stud other teams have always brought to PNC Park.
Why can’t he bust through immediately, like others elsewhere have?
I wonder about the rotation beyond Skenes — Bubba Chandler’s command is a concern, for one thing — and we’ll see about the bullpen, but it’s not like anybody’s predicting a hundred wins. Or even 95, as Hurdle so famously did in 2013.
Nobody could believe it.
“When people ask me a number, 95 is the number I throw out there, and people go, ‘Wow, that’s a lot of … ’ and I go, ‘Yeah, you’re right it’s a lot of games,’ ” Hurdle said. “I get it, but you know what? If we win 95, we’re going to be in a good place.”
Yes, and when this team wins 86, it will be in just as good a place: the playoffs. And it will win 86.
Mark it down (in pencil).