If there is a line of people ahead of me who are more cynical and jaded about the Pittsburgh Pirates, it’s a short one.

Yet here I am — with Game 1 of the 2026 season approaching Thursday — predicting 81 wins.

I’ve been hovering around that number for quite a few weeks, waiting for common sense to kick in and walk back that prediction.

It hasn’t happened.

I genuinely think that the Pirates are capable of being 10 wins better than last year’s total of 71 victories, and that they can remain in the wild card race until the last week of the season.

That’s a dream that normally evaporates around the Steelers’ first preseason game, if not sooner.

However, I can’t even bask in my own realistic belief of improvement based on the additions the club made this offseason because it has been dwarfed by the cockeyed confidence of those who are predicting 86 or 87 wins … or maybe even winning the National League Central.

There’s a thin line between optimism and hyperbole, and I think we’ve crossed it.

The four major additions to the Pirates lineup — Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna, Jake Mangum and Brandon Lowe — have a collective wins above replacement number of 7.5.

That’s not enough to get to 87 wins.

It’s also to say nothing of the 4.1 WAR you’ve got to subtract when you delete the contributions of the top four departing regulars from last year’s lineup in Tommy Pham, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Adam Frazier and Ke’Bryan Hayes.

Don’t forget that David Bednar (1.3) and Andrew McCutchen (0.1) are gone too.

Even if you factor in a handful more wins because Don Kelly is the manager instead of Derek Shelton, you’re still not making up that gap between 71 and 87.

I like all the new players. They are a big reason why I think the Pirates can stay competitive longer. But I don’t like them that much.

Nor am I particularly wild about the reconfigured bullpen, the back half of the starting rotation, the projected outfield defense and the uncertainty of how innings will be doled out on the left side of the infield until Konnor Griffin gets called up to the major league roster.

Those shortcomings are easy things to point at as reasons why this team — while improved — could still easily lose 81 times in 162 tries.

Not to mention, what if Paul Skenes finally looks human and misses a few starts due to injury or sees his ERA surge all the way up to … you know … slightly above 2.00 for the first time in his career?

In a strange way, people like me who are predicting an improvement in the 5-10 win range and those who are in the 15-20 stratosphere agree on the biggest point imaginable. The only difference is, to what degree?

That variable is: How much better can last year’s underachievers improve?

You know who I’m talking about: Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and Henry Davis.

Davis can’t hit under .200 if he is going to catch 90-100 games. Cruz and Reynolds can’t strike out a combined 347 times again.

Reynolds has to have an OPS between .800 and .900, like his 2021-22 seasons with 25-ish homers and 80-90 RBIs.

Not the .245/.720/16/73 he put up last year.

Cruz has to be a 30/40 guy. Not a 20/40 guy.

He doesn’t have to be a .300 hitter. But he can’t be a .200 hitter. He doesn’t have to be Willie Mays in center field, but he can’t be a daily Kennywood ride either.

And if this team is really going to contend for anything, his OPS can’t be .676. By comparison, Jared Triolo’s was .667.

That’s where the difference lies between an achievable improvement I’m espousing based on their offseason efforts and the high-end wishful thinking of others.

If Davis, Reynolds and Cruz can attain those numbers, .500 or better is in reach. But I feel like that’s asking a lot based on their inconsistencies. By this point, those three have pretty much told us who they are, haven’t they?

However, I get the impression the Bucco true believers who are in the 85-90 win range somehow feel that those guys can not only hit those marks but surpass them.

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If the Pirates are really going to make the playoffs for the first time in a decade, they’d better.

If they don’t, wake me up when the Steelers pull into Saint Vincent College again.

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LISTEN: Tim Benz and Mark Madden discuss the Konnor Griffin decision and some of the optimistic predictions surrounding the 2026 Pittsburgh Pirates.