One week into March Madness, and there isn’t as much chaos within people’s brackets as we normally see.
The transfer portal, NIL and sprawling power conferences have a lot to do with that.
The two biggest surprises still alive are an SEC school in 11th-seeded Texas and a Big Ten team in ninth-seeded Iowa.
But if Cinderella doesn’t win big over the first weekend, then that means the brand names and star players are playing in the Sweet 16. And that’s what we’ve got for sure when the NCAA basketball Tournament resumes Thursday night.
Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News, the Big Ten Network and Fox joined me on the “Breakfast With Benz” podcast to preview Week 2 of NCAA hoops mayhem.
Can we see an all-Pittsburgh coaching matchup in the Elite Eight? Blackhawk’s Sean Miller (Pitt ‘92) is coaching Texas (11) in the Sweet 16 against Purdue (2). Moon’s John Calipari (Clarion ‘82) is coaching Arkansas (4) against top-seeded Arizona in the West bracket.
If their two teams win, the Longhorns and Razorbacks will play each other with a berth in the Final Four on the line. What are the chances of that happening?
“I don’t give Sean a great chance. Certainly, if it were just Sean playing, or just Sean coaching, I’d give him a better chance than I do the Texas team against Purdue,” DeCourcy said. “Purdue comes in 100% healthy. Purdue should win the game. It would be a significant underperformance if the boilers didn’t win it.”
As for Calipari’s Razorbacks?
“John Calipari, I give a better chance. Although, I do think that Arizona is the best team in the field. They are a complete group. They were my selection to win it all,” DeCourcy said. “They did not play great in their second round game against Utah State, particularly in a stretch from about 12 minutes left until about four minutes left in the second half. They did not play particularly well. But they ultimately got themselves back together. Arkansas, I give a chance, because they are such an overwhelming offensive team. They have one of the great offensive teams in college basketball this year.”
I picked Arkansas to win the region at the start of the tournament. At the very least, I like them to cover the 7½ point spread as an underdog.
After a rough offensive display against Kansas, do you still like St. John’s to upset Duke in the East region and advance to the Final Four?: That was DeCourcy’s pick before the tournament started. What does he think now?
And, if not, who advances from the East? Is it one of those two teams? Michigan State? Or UConn?
“I think at this point, out of all of them, the one that looks most promising is Michigan State,” DeCourcy said. “I like what Michigan State is doing to an extent. I didn’t think they played particularly well against Louisville (on Saturday). But they were able to win. I like the idea of beating a good team when you’re not great.”
Personally, I’ll stick with St. John’s emerging. They were my pick too. But if I waver after the Red Storm’s offensive woes against Kansas, I’m going to switch to Duke despite injuries to Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II.
“They were very cautious with Ngongba (while beating TCU),” DeCourcy said. “(Duke coach) Jon Scheyer, after originally coming out and saying he didn’t think that they would see Caleb Foster play again unless they made the Final Four, he’s now saying (Foster) at least has a shot to play this weekend. But if he plays, what is he? How much of a factor is he?”
Does Joshua Jefferson’s injury for Iowa State change your view of the West bracket?: DeCourcy liked Iowa State to take out top-seeded Michigan in the Elite Eight of the West. But Joshua Jefferson averages 16.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, and he is a question mark for Friday’s Sweet 16 game against Tennessee.
“I think Iowa State will still get through Tennessee regardless, but I have now reversed that pick and gone with Michigan,” DeCourcy said. “If Iowa State was healthy and whole, I still think they’re a better team overall than Michigan, but that doesn’t look like that’s going to be the case.”
I think Michigan versus Alabama on Friday might be the best game of the weekend, and Alabama may pull off a 9½ point upset: “Anytime Alabama or Arkansas plays, it’s fun because they just go. They don’t really stop you that much from going, either. And that’s their problem. That’s the biggest problem for both Alabama and Arkansas, is that neither is great at defense,” DeCourcy said. “I disagree with you, and I think Michigan will get through this, and will be excited about the prospect of possibly facing an Iowa State team that’s missing its best player.”
Does Florida’s upset loss mean the South is wide for Houston?: “I don’t think it’s an easier path for Houston. I think it’s an easier path for the Houston/Illinois winner,” DeCourcy said. “Because Illinois is still standing in Houston’s way. In the regional final — if (Houston is) able to get through Illinois, they won’t face the level of game that they would have (versus Florida).
Nebraska has never been to the Sweet 16. Iowa hasn’t been there since 1999. Who survives to play Houston/Illinois?: “I have Nebraska winning that. They played twice, and they split home and home. The Nebraska home game was more one-sided toward the Huskers. But I believe that game went to overtime. They just dominated overtime (84-75),” DeCourcy said. “So it’s a really close competition between the two of them. It’s going to be very hard for either one to get a ‘W.’ They just are that closely matched.”
So DeCourcy has Michigan State beating Duke in the Elite Eight of the East. He’s sticking with Arizona in the West over Purdue. He’s flipping to Michigan over Iowa State in the Midwest because of Jefferson’s injury, and Houston topping Nebraska in the South as the fourth team in the Final Four.
We’ll catch up with him next week in advance of the Final Four in Indianapolis. Until then, listen to all of this week’s podcast here.