Meteorologists predict that it will be pleasantly warm but potentially rainy when the Pittsburgh Pirates play this season’s home-opener Friday afternoon at PNC Park.

But forecasting the game’s outcome based on the elements doesn’t bode well for the Buccos.

“Let’s start with the fun part of the forecast for Friday,” meteorologist Jason Frazier told TribLive from the National Weather Service office in Moon. “Sometimes, opening days can be chilly. That’s not the case this year. We’re looking at highs to be higher-70s, near 80.”

Frazier stressed, though, that early indicators say the game’s first pitch against the Baltimore Orioles — scheduled ceremonially to whiz across home plate at 4:12 p.m. — will occur amid a 40% to 50% chance of rain.

The National Weather Service is predicting a storm front will move into the area Friday. The question is whether it will stop and hover over Pittsburgh — or just near it.

Forecasters probably won’t have a good handle on the chance of rain until Friday morning, Frazier said.

“It’s hard to know exactly when the confidence in that forecast can be high,” he said. “Sometimes, you can have confidence about a forecast six days out and, sometimes, you’re still not clear six hours out.”

Does good weather help the Pirates?

Since 2020, weather forecasts haven’t done much to help the Pirates’ winning-game percentage. The team has lost games when the weather is good — and when the weather is bad.

It was sunny and mild during last year’s opener and the team lost to the New York Yankees, 9-4, in front of nearly 37,000 fans. The Pirates ended the year in fifth place — 26 games back.

In 2021, the home opener took place in rainy conditions. Just 7,749 people turned out for the game, as PNC Park was sold at 25% capacity because of pandemic distancing restrictions. The Pirates lost to the Chicago Cubs, 4-2. They ended that season at 61-101 — 34 games out of first place.

The last time the Pirates won their home opener — they beat the Chicago White Sox, 13-9, on Friday, April 7, 2023 — it was overcast and the temperature topped out in Pittsburgh at 62 degrees. That squad ended the year in fourth place with a record of 76-86.

The Pirates are 10-15 in home openers at PNC Park. In franchise history, the Buccos are 80-64 on home openers.

Frazier, the meteorologist, says predictions about the cloud cover for Friday’s game remains cloudy.

“There are multiple different scenarios on how this could play out,” he said. “As we get closer to the date, we recommend people continue to monitor the forecasts.”