A new poll shows Gov. Josh Shapiro with a commanding lead over Treasurer Stacy Garrity in his bid for a second term.
The Susquehanna Polling and Research poll, released Wednesday, has Shapiro leading Garrity by 22 percentage points (58% to 36%). Just 5% of likely voters remain undecided at this point.
Shapiro, a Democrat from Montgomery County, “seems to have the best trajectory we’ve seen for a first-term governor seeking reelection when compared with past governors,” said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research.
Two decades ago, former Gov. Ed Rendell had a 59% approval rating in Susquehanna’s last poll before his reelection race against former Steelers star Lynn Swann. Rendell, a Philadelphia Democrat, won that race with 60% of the vote.
Shapiro widened his lead over Garrity from Susquehanna’s September poll when 54% of voters said they supported him compared to 36% for Garrity.
While 56% of Shapiro’s supporters say they’re backing him because they think he’s doing a good job as governor, nearly three-quarters of the people supporting Garrity say they’re doing so because she’s a Republican (50%) or because President Donald Trump supports her and she supports him (22%).
“The poll seems to suggest that Garrity has an identity problem,” Lee said.
“Voters still don’t have a crystal clear view of who she is and what she stands for,” Lee added. “It seems odd that more people don’t cite her military background or her conservative credentials as a key influencing factor. Maybe it’s just too early in the race, but the bottom line is that she doesn’t have the luxury of taking her time introducing herself to the voting public.”
Garrity’s campaign declined to comment on the poll.
Shapiro’s campaign also declined to comment on the poll, but pointed to the record $10 million it raised during the first three months of the year as a sign of the “broad support for Gov. Shapiro’s leadership and his reelection campaign.”
Lee said Garrity, a Republican from Bradford County, needs to do a better job of capturing voters in her own party. While the poll showed that Shapiro has the support of 96% of Democrats, 75% of Republicans are backing Garrity and 18% favor Shapiro.
Exit polling after the 2022 race for governor showed Republican candidate Doug Mastriano lost 16% of the GOP vote to Shapiro, Lee said. Shapiro won that race, 56% to 42%.
“Garrity needs these GOP voters to come back to her or she risks losing by a similar margin to Shapiro, or it could be even worse,” Lee said.
What’s the key for Garrity going forward?
“Garrity needs to find a wedge issue against Shapiro, but none of the polling we’ve done suggests that she has been able to lock into an issue that she can use to drive down his support,” Lee said.
The Susquehanna poll, conducted March 9-17, surveyed 705 Pennsylvania voters and had a margin of error of 3.7%.