A blockbuster trade shook up the 2025 NFL Draft after just one pick. Will this year’s event have similar first-round fireworks?
Daring moves are beloved draft-day moments, but a couple of factors could discourage teams from trading up this year. That means Day 1 might be less dramatic when Pittsburgh hosts the draft April 23-25.
“Yeah, it is going to be pretty quiet,” predicted ESPN analyst Matt Miller on a conference call previewing the draft.
His reasoning was twofold.
This year’s draft class isn’t deep in franchise quarterbacks or so-called generational talents, the athletes who typically entice a team to move up. Only one quarterback is considered a first-round lock: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, the presumptive No. 1 overall pick.
To complicate matters, NFL general managers are already looking ahead to 2027.
Next year’s draft class is considered deeper, particularly at quarterback. That has QB-needy teams hoarding picks for later rather than trading them away as bargaining chips now.
Count the Steelers among the teams who’d like to add picks for next year, but they aren’t easy to acquire nowadays.
“People don’t want to lose that capital for next year,” Miller said. “But, also, I think it speaks to this year’s class. … It is not a draft that you trade up to get players. You let them fall to you.”
Two recent NFL.com mock drafts projected a few modest trades by teams looking to improve their first-round pick by a couple of spots.
Draft analyst Lance Zierlein predicted two first-round trades, both involving teams outside the top 10. NFL.com colleague Chad Reuter included four first-round trades in his mock with three coming after pick 20.
So, no blockbusters in either.
Over the past five years, teams made an average of 35.2 trades on draft days. That included 6.4 trades in the first round, on average.
Teams made four first-round trades last year. The most daring saw the Jacksonville Jaguars acquire the second-overall pick from the Cleveland Browns to select two-way player Travis Hunter, a Colorado receiver and cornerback.
After Mendoza, this year’s draft doesn’t have anyone drawing the pre-draft hype of Hunter. Miller’s latest mock draft has Ohio State edge rusher Arvell Reese going second to the New York Jets, followed by Miami (Fla.) offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love.
All are coveted prospects, but moving into the top five or 10 comes at a cost. The Jaguars traded away their 2026 first-round pick as part of the package to acquire Hunter.
“I don’t get the sense we’ll see a ton of movement,” Miller said. “Maybe Arizona comes back into Round 1 for (Alabama quarterback) Ty Simpson, if you want to jump the Jets at 33.”
Miller said more teams may be interested in moving down than up. He said this year’s draft has a good abundance of talent for Rounds 2 or 3, so accumulating extra Day 2 picks might be a winning strategy.
“I’ve heard a lot of teams that are willing to trade back,” Miller said. “I have not heard of any team so far that’s willing to trade up. Just because the talent pool is not there and no one wants to lose next year’s picks.”