The Pittsburgh Penguins are in the playoffs for the first time since 2022. The Philadelphia Flyers are in the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Naturally, they are celebrating those accomplishments by facing each other in Round 1 of the 2026 NHL postseason.

Bring on the cross-state hate!

I’m picking the Penguins to win this series in seven games. And now I’m giving you seven things that need to happen for that prediction to come true.

1. The Penguins need the 2025-26 version of Erik Karlsson to continue his fine play into the postseason. This is the guy Penguins fans thought they were getting in the summer of 2023.

No, his defensive game will never be perfect, but it’s been much better this year. When it hasn’t been good, his offense has managed to make up for it — including being a positive force on the power play.

Karlsson ended the year with 66 points (15 goals, 51 assists) in 75 games. He was also a plus-8 after being a minus-24 last year.

When things get tough in Philadelphia, or when it gets tense at PPG Paints Arena, this is the version of Karlsson the Penguins must see to squeeze out a first-round playoff win.

Nobody on Pittsburgh’s team averaged more time on the ice than Karlsson did (23 minutes, 36 seconds) this season. The vast majority of those shifts need to be positive for the Pens if they are going to survive the first round.

2. The Pittsburgh special teams need to return to being special.

There was a wide stretch of time this season when the Penguins could check out the daily stats and see both their penalty kill and their power play in the top-5 of the NHL.

They are both still in the top 10. The club ended its regular season in seventh place in both categories. The power play wrapped up 2025-26 at 24.1%. The PK was at 81.4 %.

But neither unit was particularly great down the stretch. Pittsburgh concluded March by allowing nine power-play goals to opponents over its last six games of the month. They’ve given up three more in April, including one to St. Louis in the regular season finale Tuesday night.

Since March 21, the power play is seven for its last 37 (18.9%). Three of those goals came in one game against Florida.

So the special teams units have been a bit more pedestrian of late. With likely fewer penalties called in the playoffs, that may not be as much of a factor. Then again, the fewer penalties that are called, the more high-leverage each man-up/man-down situation becomes.

The Penguins need to be the better of the two teams in those situations. The Flyers’ power play (15.7%) was the worst in hockey this year. The penalty kill (77.6%) was 22nd. Dan Muse’s team must exploit that advantage.

3. Muse needs to figure out how he wants to arrange the top two lines, especially if the Flyers want to deploy Sean Couturier against Evgeni Malkin. Philly has tended to like that matchup in the past, and Couturier often gets under Malkin’s skin (not like that’s hard to do).

Now that Malkin is playing wing, the Flyers may not bother trying to match all that much in that regard. But if they do, it might be wise to return Egor Chinakhov with Malkin and Tommy Novak, and elevate Rickard Rakell back with Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust. In other words, give Couturier and company somebody else to worry about when they are out there besides Malkin.

Furthermore, I still prefer Rakell at wing. I know that the Novak-Rakell-Malkin line looks like three centers on the same line. At this point, I think it’s three wings on the same line.

To start the series, I’d put Chinakhov back with Novak and Malkin and see how it goes. Give Rust and Rakell to Crosby. If it doesn’t work during the two games in Pittsburgh to start the series, change it up for the trip to Philly. But Muse needs to figure that out quickly.

4. Speaking of the forwards, Ben Kindel and Justin Brazeau need to find whatever it is they’ve lost when it comes to their scoring touch.

Kindel has just one goal in his last 15 games. Brazeau has just one in his last 19 games.

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If those two end up playing with Anthony Mantha for most of the series, Mantha can’t be asked to carry that line himself. He has been excellent all year. But don’t throw too much on his shoulders.

5. Whatever manner Muse decides to deploy the goaltenders, Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs don’t need to be the 2026 version of Fleury-Murray from 2017. They just need to be better than Daniel Vladar and Samuel Ersson.

Of late for the Flyers, that’s largely been Vladar, and he’s been excellent in April. This month, he is 5-1 with a save percentage of .921 and a goals against average of 1.81.

He’s also never started a postseason game.

Presuming Skinner is the goalie for Pittsburgh — for as much junk as he took from Edmonton fans for failing to win a Stanley Cup — the guy won three series each of the last two seasons. He has 21 victories and four playoff shutouts over the last two years.

I’d imagine both coaches would take it if you told them in advance of this series that the goaltending will basically be a wash and the skaters will determine the result.

6. The Penguins better have an answer for Porter Martone. The Flyers had added a really interesting dynamic with this player since they last skated against the Black and Gold.

The rookie out of Michigan State has 10 points in nine games since joining the team following the end of the Spartans’ season in the NCAA Tournament.

The native of Ontario is 6-foot-3, 210 pounds and can be a real problem in front of the net. I’ll bet that he’ll be heard from multiple times before this series is over.

7. A Flyer needs to tick off Sidney Crosby. Since it’s the Flyers we’re talking about, I’m sure someone on that roster will oblige.

It’ll probably be Trevor Zegras. It might be Couturier or Martone. Or, I’ll bet Garnet Hathaway is a willing candidate. But someone on Philadelphia’s team needs to make Crosby angry.

Because, as we all know, the Flyers have rarely ended up on the plus side when Sid is angry.

Just ask Derian Hatcher.

In 23 playoff games against the Flyers, Crosby has 36 points.

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LISTEN: Tim Benz and Brian Metzer of the Penguins Radio Network compare the Penguins-Flyers series.