Barring any last-minute surprise, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will step to the podium Thursday night, address the crowd outside Acrisure Stadium and announce Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
And then what?
For now, nobody knows. The first round is always a guessing game, but this year might be more so, starting with the second pick. Increasing the uncertainty is a draft class crowded by similarly rated players at the same positions that’s also short on elite first-round prospects overall.
“We feel like we know where No. 1 is,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said of Mendoza. “After that, there’s the unknown. And the unpredictability is what makes it fun.”
Some 257 players will hear their names called during the three-day, seven-round draft April 23-25 in Pittsburgh.
The Las Vegas Raiders hold the first pick and haven’t hidden their affinity for Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner. But opinions differ on which edge rusher the New York Jets should select second, likely Texas Tech’s David Bailey or Ohio State’s Arvell Reese.
“It feels like a two-man race there when you’re looking at Bailey and Reese,” Jeremiah said. “I would say (Ohio State linebacker) Sonny Styles has to be in the conversation and debate … but that definitely feels like it’s one of those two.”
Bailey has more experience, but the versatile Reese maybe has more upside.
Bailey played 46 games over four seasons and tied for the FBS lead with 141⁄2 sacks last year. Reese made 96 tackles and 61⁄2 sacks as a first-year starter, at times as an off-ball linebacker.
Both were first-team All-Americans. Reese is slightly taller at 6-foot-4 and 241 pounds. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.46 seconds. Bailey measures 6-3 and 251 pounds. He ran the 40 in 4.5.
“With Bailey, you know exactly what you’re going to do with him,” Jeremiah said. “…. Reese does have the off-ball, on-ball versatility, which I really love. But if you’re looking for impact on a team that needs to get after the quarterback, I’ve been leaning toward Bailey.”
If so, that’s two picks down and 30 to go. But it doesn’t get any easier to predict.
ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. published an updated mock draft this week with the Jets taking Bailey. On a conference call Thursday, the dean of draft gurus compared his mock draft process to solving a puzzle.
“You’re always going to feel like, ‘Oh, this guy is a little too low, this one is a little too high,’ ” Kiper said, “because you’re trying to fill needs.”
This year, Kiper found there aren’t as many puzzle pieces fitting into the first round. Sure, the round will contain 32 picks, but Kiper doesn’t see 32 players worthy of a first-round grade.
That lack of top-end talent can cause draft predictions to vary greatly.
“You’re not going to get consensus on a lot of players, especially guys in this draft after the first 18 (picks), because I only have 17 or 18 guys with first-round grades,” Kiper said. “So, after 17 and 18, you’re into 40 to 45 to 55 guys that are very similar. You’re splitting hairs there from 19, 20, on down.”
Kiper highlighted how the second tier of edge rushers, specifically Missouri’s Zion Young, Auburn’s Keldric Faulk and Miami’s Akheem Mesidor, are bunched together. They’re taken at picks 25, 26 and 31 in his mock draft.
“You could have them in the late first or you could put them in the early second,” Kiper said.
There is a similar challenge separating Central Florida’s Malachi Lawrence, Clemson’s T.J. Parker, Oklahoma’s R. Mason Thomas and Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell. Those edge rushers went 35th, 39th, 40th and 41st in Kiper’s mock.
“This year’s draft does have a lot of guys (at the same positions) that are within a certain area of the draft,” he said.
There is a similar but smaller grouping at offensive tackle. Kiper projected teams drafting Miami’s Francis Mauigoa, Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor and Utah’s Spencer Fano in a span from 10 to 13. Seven offensive linemen were selected in the first round of the mock draft, including Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane by the Pittsburgh Steelers at 21.
In Kiper’s view, a lack of first-round depth may leave teams near the top hesitant to trade back.
“You’ve got to be pretty careful when you have (the opportunity to draft) a guy in that top group … to settle for a second-round caliber player,” he said. “That’s where you have to look at that board and say, ‘Where are my first rounders? Where are the guys that are legit?’ There are not 32 first-rounders.”