PHILADELPHIA — The history is hideous to peruse.
And the math is even worse to look at.
In the 213 instances throughout the NHL’s 108 years of existence in which a best-of-seven series has seen one participant race out to a 3-0 advantage, that team has claimed victory in 209 of those series, equating to a commanding winning percentage of .918.
Only four teams have overcome that deficit. And there is little to suggest the Pittsburgh Penguins have what is required to become the fifth.
Through three games of their ongoing first-round series with the Philadelphia Flyers, the Penguins have barely held a lead. In fact, the entire 21 even minutes of game time in which they’ve had an advantage came during Wednesday’s 5-2 home loss at the Xfinity Mobile Arena.
The Penguins have provided scant evidence that they can pull off such a comeback. Heck, even getting a win in Game 4 on Saturday at the same venue appears like it may be too daunting of a task.
The Toronto Maple Leafs were the first team to pull off a so-called “reverse sweep” against the Detroit Red Wings in the 1942 Stanley Cup Final.
They were followed by the New York Islanders, who, buoyed by goaltender Glenn “Chico” Resch, stunned the Penguins in a 1975 quarterfinal series.
The two most recent comebacks each happened this century, with the Flyers beating the Boston Bruins in a 2010 Eastern Conference semifinal series. Then the Los Angeles Kings pulled it off against the San Jose Sharks in a 2014 Western Conference quarterfinal series.
There was almost a fifth two years ago. And Penguins goaltender Stuart Skinner had a major role in nearly orchestrating the nearly impossible.
As a member of the Edmonton Oilers, Skinner saw his team fall behind 3-0 to the Florida Panthers in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final.
But instead of going away quietly, the Oilers won the next three games.
THE EDMONTON OILERS FORCE GAME 7 AFTER BEING DOWN 3-0 IN THE #STANLEYCUP FINAL! ???? pic.twitter.com/9sgBr6otSe
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 22, 2024
Ultimately, they lost a competitive Game 7, 2-1.
Despite that unappetizing conclusion, Skinner cited that experience in the immediate aftermath of his loss in Game 3 on Wednesday.
“Playoffs are intense,” Skinner said. “There’s a lot of pressure, a lot of noise going on everywhere. I feel like when you go down 3-0, what really helped me in my experience was it kind of just frees you up. You don’t really have anything to lose. And we’re in a spot where we don’t have anything to lose, and they do. If we catch them a couple times — just talking about momentum — you can change momentum and when that happens, things can go in your favor.”
If the Penguins are to orchestrate the improbable, they have to start small.
“It’s one game, one period, one shift at a time,” Penguins forward Bryan Rust said. “Win that shift, win that period, hopefully win one game and go from there.”
One place the Penguins don’t seem interested in going to is despair. They largely professed resolve in the face of the overwhelming sample size of teams in their predicament.
“Now it’s do or die and now we’re going to see what we’re made of,” Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson said. “It’s an opportunity, and it’s something that we’re going to have to embrace and understand that being in this situation, even though we’re down 3-0, is still a lot of fun and we would have paid a lot of money to stand here today back in October and say this is where we were going to be.
“We’ve just got to realize that and understand that we’re a good hockey team here. We’ve got a great opportunity.”
Skinner nearly saw that opportunity get realized two years ago.
“We got the bodies in here,” Skinner implored. “We got a resilient group. I can say that over and over and over again, but we’ve proven it, we’ve shown it. This is the group that can definitely come back from this deficit. I certainly believe that. I’ve personally done it to be able to go to Game 7. You know it’s possible.
“You know, statistics are fun to look at. But doesn’t mean they’re always right.”
Note: The Penguins had a scheduled day off Thursday.