Only one congressional incumbent from Southwestern Pennsylvania is considered vulnerable in this year’s pivotal midterm elections, and that congressman, U.S. Rep. Chris Deluzio, D-Fox Chapel, faces a minimal threat, a new analysis shows.
Deluzio is unopposed in the May 19 primary but will face a Republican challenger in November. Beaver County Sheriff Tony Guy of Hopewell and Jesse James Vodvarka of Robinson are vying for the GOP nomination.
Louis Jacobson, chief correspondent for PolitiFact, has been handicapping Pennsylvania’s congressional races for the website PoliticsPA since 2010. While Jacobson initially considered Deluzio “potentially vulnerable” in ratings released last summer, he downgraded that assessment to “minimally vulnerable” in an update last week.
“He hasn’t left many openings for Republicans to exploit,” Jacobson said.
Jacobson said Deluzio has a significant campaign fundraising advantage. And the 17th Congressional District he represents leans Democratic — though it is more of a swing district than others in Southwestern Pennsylvania.
In 2024, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris outperformed Republican Donald Trump by 5.5 percentage points in the 17th District, which includes much of suburban Allegheny County and all of Beaver County.
Results were more lopsided for Harris in the district represented by U.S. Rep. Summer Lee, D-Swissvale, (she won by 19 points) and for Trump in districts represented by U.S. Reps. Guy Reschenthaler, R-Peters, (33 points) and Mike Kelly, R-Butler (23 points).
“Congressman Deluzio is proud to represent a competitive congressional district and thinks our country would be better off with more competitive districts like ours, where you have to earn votes beyond just your party base to win,” Deluzio campaign spokeswoman Zoe Bluffstone said. “He believes that competitive elections are an important part of American democracy.”
Nearly 48% of the district’s registered voters are Democrats, 37% are Republicans and the rest belong to other parties or are not affiliated with any party, records show.
At this point, Jacobson said neither national party has poured significant resources into races in the region’s four congressional districts, eyeing hotly contested races elsewhere.
“There are just more important targets,” he said.
Kelly, Lee and Reschenthaler are considered safe for reelection, Jacobson’s analysis shows. Jacobson said he intends to update his ratings several more times before the November election.
Other top political handicappers have similar assessments.
The Cook Political Report gave a “solid” rating to Deluzio, Kelly, Lee and Reschenthaler.
Inside Elections said Deluzio’s seat is likely to remain Democratic and Kelly, Lee and Reschenthaler are deemed “safe” in their races.
Deluzio won by relatively close margins in his previous two elections, collecting 53% and 54% of the votes, respectively.
Regarding the political handicappers’ positive outlook on his campaign this year, Bluffstone pointed to Deluzio’s work during his first two terms, including efforts to secure nearly $200 million in earmarks to support local projects this fiscal year (the third-highest amount in the House) and fight corruption.
“He intends to win and earn another term from the people of Western Pennsylvania this fall,” Bluffstone said.
Vodvarka, who manages a family-owned manufacturing firm that makes springs and wire forms, said he doesn’t put much stock in the handicappers’ assessments because he thinks they are “probably on the side of the Democrats to begin with.”
“I’m getting a lot of steam on social media, meeting new people every day and working to get my message out there, so I’m focusing on that,” Vodvarka said.
Guy, Vodvarka’s opponent in the Republican primary, did not return messages.
Late last month, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted Deluzio’s race from “likely Democratic” to “safe” for the incumbent. Kelly, Lee and Reschenthaler are also rated “safe.”
Kelly and Democratic challenger Justin Wagner of Mercer are unopposed in their respective primaries in the 16th District, which includes all of Butler, Lawrence, Mercer, Crawford and Erie counties and part of Venango County.
Lee is facing Pittsburgh’s William Parker in the Democratic primary in the 12th District, which includes parts of Allegheny and Westmoreland counties. James Hayes of Pittsburgh is unopposed on the Republican side.
Reschenthaler and Alan Bradstock of Fayette County’s Dunbar Township are unopposed in their primaries in the 14th District, which includes all of Fayette, Greene and Washington counties and parts of Westmoreland, Indiana and Somerset counties.
The ratings reflect a political climate where competitive congressional races are more the exception than the rule and incumbents are difficult to knock off.
Since 2000, a majority of Pennsylvania’s congressional races — about 58% — have been noncompetitive, meaning the winning candidate collected at least 60% of the votes cast, according to a TribLive analysis. About 19% of the 200-plus races during that span were competitive, with the winner collecting less than 55% of the votes, the analysis showed.
During the same span, Pennsylvania’s incumbent members of Congress seeking reelection have won 200 races and lost just 14, a winning percentage of 93.5%, according to the analysis.
The percentage has been even higher since 2012, with incumbents winning 105 races and losing just five for a winning percentage of 95.4%.
John Huder, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, said congressional races have been trending less competitive for years. In the 1940s, incumbents seeking reelection won just 80% to 85% of the time. Now, the rate stands at around 96% nationally.
That has resulted in more partisanship and gridlock in Washington, Huder said.
“Over the last 10 to 15 years, the parties have just focused on their bases, and they’ve stopped communicating with the other side. The idea that you’re going to go out and try to win over the possible swing vote has been pushed to the side, and the emphasis has been on mobilizing the base and getting your voters out there,” Huder said.
“There’s really just not a lot of competitive space out there,” he added. “It’s created a situation where our elections are less competitive, and that just reinforces polarization and partisanship.”