Are the Pirates good enough to make the playoffs?
The MLB season is only one-quarter complete. But that’s a big small sample.
The Chicago Cubs have had two 10-game winning streaks and might run away with the National League Central.
The Pirates linger on the edge of the wild-card race, which figures to be their lot through season’s end. Just make it, or just miss it.
The Pirates are subpar defensively, particularly in the outfield. Marcell Ozuna may be designated, but he’s no hitter. Catcher is a black hole offensively. The bullpen is sketchy.
There’s plenty of good. The top three in the pitching rotation are dealing. Rookie phenom Konnor Griffin is stabilizing and improving. The team’s home-run total is mid-table, a huge improvement from dead last in MLB the prior season.
There would be irony in snaring a wild card.
In 2014 and ‘15, when the wild-card phase was single-game elimination, the Pirates got bounced by buzzsaw pitchers in San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner and the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta, not scoring in either game.
Now the Pirates have that guy in Paul Skenes, and the wild-card round is best-of-three.
Where do the Pirates need to improve? How can it happen? Is ownership willing to add salary?
Payroll went up to about $103 million this season. It was roughly $85 million last year. Some solid additions got made.
But did owner Bob Nutting suddenly want to compete, or did he spend more to hedge against a salary cap/floor potentially being adopted when a new MLB CBA gets negotiated after this season?
Spend less now and get some quality. As opposed to plunking down a lot more later just to catch up.
Only a small dent got made in that regard: The cap floor would be at least $140 million. It’s impossible to imagine Nutting spending that. (Unless he keeps Skenes long-term.)
The Pirates won’t replace Henry Davis at catcher. He’s a terrible hitter, not least for a former first pick overall in the MLB draft. But Skenes likes throwing to Davis.
The Pirates could use a third baseman. But Nick Gonzales currently occupies that spot and is hitting .316, albeit with no power.
Gonzales is almost 27, a career .257 hitter before this season. He will doubtless revert to that level.
Although a career year can’t be ruled out. An outlier.
Anthony Mantha scored 33 goals for the Penguins this season. Freddy Sanchez won a batting title for the Pirates in 2006.
Trading for a legitimate third baseman might command a starting pitcher in return.
That’s ill-advised. It’s no guarantee that, after elbow surgery, Jared Jones will quickly resume heading toward his prime.
If you want to discover that you don’t have enough pitching, trade a pitcher.
A quality third baseman who can hit would likely carry a big contract. A talk show proposed getting San Francisco’s Matt Chapman. Chapman, 33, is having a bad season. Just one home run to date.
Chapman is also on a $151 million contract that runs through 2030.
Nutting would never take that on. He shouldn’t.
The Pirates shouldn’t trade a legit pitcher, either, or an above-the-line prospect.
So, except for maybe a meh trade-deadline rental, the Pirates probably got what they got.
Improvement or adjustment from within doesn’t offer much promise, save the return of Jones.
It might already be time to cut bait on Ozuna, who looks every bit as bad as his stats (.194, 4 HR, 14 RBIs).
Deploy him selectively against left-handed pitching, Otherwise use DH as a rotating spot that largely features Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, both terrorists in the outfield.
Stick Jake Mangum in center field by way of upping the defense. (His territory would be foul pole to foul pole).
Mostly, the Pirates are what they are.
What they are is a borderline playoff team.
They’re one significant injury away from not even being that.
More than anything, the Pirates need established players to do better.
Reynolds has four home runs, just one in his last 25 games. Cruz has seen his batting average drop almost 100 points in the last four weeks. The two of them are pure “Yakety Sax” in the outfield.