With Jared Jones ready to return, the Pittsburgh Pirates are expected to shake up their strong starting rotation in a way that they hope will create a domino effect to help stop the bleeding in their bullpen.
Manager Don Kelly said the Pirates expect to make a decision Thursday, and the pitching performances in Wednesday’s 10-4 loss to the Chicago Cubs will be factored in. Which starter to remove from one of the top rotations in baseball is more complicated than surface-level statistics.
“Honestly, we’ve got a really tough decision to make,” Kelly said. “Ultimately our goal is to win and to prioritize winning this year, however we do that. Just trying to take everything into account to make the best decision possible.”
Let’s take a look at and make a case for and against each of the candidates:
Paul Skenes
Skenes, who turns 24 on Friday, leads the Pirates with an 0.82 WHIP and .185 batting average-against and has five quality starts in 11 appearances. Skenes has not been as dominant of late, as he’s coming off back-to-back losses to Philadelphia and Toronto in which he allowed a combined nine earned runs on 15 hits.
The two-time All-Star starter won National League rookie of the year honors in 2024, was a unanimous selection for the Cy Young Award last year and is considered baseball’s best right-hander, so he’s in no danger of being bumped to the bullpen.
Mitch Keller
The eighth-year veteran is tied for the team lead with seven quality starts — he was one out shy of another in a 9-6 loss to St. Louis on May 19 — and ranks second with 64 1/3 innings and a .214 batting average-against.
If there’s a knock against Keller, it’s that his 46 strikeouts are tied for the least by a Pirates starter. And the Pirates are 6-5 in his 11 starts, a record that is tied with Skenes for third-best in the rotation.
But Keller is a proven workhorse who is the team’s highest-paid player this season. Like Skenes, he isn’t going anywhere.
Carmen Mlodzinski
The 27-year-old righty relied on a strong spring training to earn a spot in the starting rotation for the second consecutive Opening Day.
Mlodzinski, however, has only pitched more than five innings in three of his nine starts this season and he has a .272 batting average-against and a 3.76 ERA. Twice the Pirates have used openers for him, so he’s comfortable coming out of the bullpen. And he fared better in a relief role last season than he did as a starter.
But the Pirates are 8-3 in games he’s pitched, the best of any starter.
Braxton Ashcraft
Ashcraft has been the most consistent starter for the Pirates. The 26-year-old right-hander is tied with Keller with seven quality starts, has logged the most innings (68 2/3) and leads the Pirates with the lowest ERA (2.75) and the most strikeouts (70) this season.
Some of those numbers work against Ashcraft, though. He has a long injury history in the minors and increased his innings total from 73 in 2024 to 118 last year, with 69 2/3 coming in 26 appearances for the Pirates, including eight starts.
Ashcraft is on pace to pitch 190 innings, so the Pirates might be forced to reduce his workload at some point this season. But it’s doubtful they would do it this early, especially when he’s pitching so well.
“When I came up as a reliever, you got to punch guys out and I think in a lot of ways that’s helped me get out of jams that I put myself in, but you know in all, I think it’s just more experience allows you to be a little more refined in a way that you go about your work, the way you get to certain locations with certain pitches in certain counts,” he said. “It’s just maturity I guess.”
Bubba Chandler
Only 23, Chandler is the baby of the bunch — and one of the most talented pitchers on the staff. A top-100 prospect who entered the season ranked No. 15 by MLB Pipeline after recording 31 strikeouts against four walks in seven appearances (four starts) late last season.
The Pirates have been patient with his growing pains this season, as Chandler has dealt with command issues and leads the major leagues with 36 walks.
“He’s so important to the organization and such big upside,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said. “We’ve just got to hang with him and keep pushing him.”
The Pirates suffered their seventh consecutive loss with Chandler (1-6) as the starter when he allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks with five strikeouts in five innings against the Cubs.
Yet Chandler was coming off a career-best 11-strikeout performance against the Blue Jays and averaged 98.3 mph on 39 fastballs against the Cubs, twice touching triple digits.
“I mean, there’s electricity in there,” Kelly said. “There’s a young kid that’s navigating the big leagues trying to figure it out. There’s been some really, really good times and some electric stuff, and there’s been some learning moments that we’re always going to deal with young players that we’ve seen. We’ve seen Bubba really good and we’ve seen what he’s able to do when he’s on.”
Jared Jones
After missing the 2025 season following InternalBrace surgery on his right elbow, Jones made five starts in a rehabilitation assignment and became eligible to be activated from the 60-day injured list on Sunday. Kelly said Jones’ bullpen session Tuesday at PNC Park “went well,” so the Pirates wanted to see how he recovered.
The 24-year-old right-hander had 132 strikeouts in 22 starts as a rookie in 2024, including a pair of 10-strikeout performances, and has made it abundantly clear that his preference is to remain a starter.
Given that he never went deeper in a game than 4 1/3 innings or 76 pitches in any of his five starts on rehabilitation assignment, it’s possible he could be used in a bulk relief role. But Jones has started 96 of 100 games as a pro, so it would be an unfamiliar role.
Cherington has remained noncommittal to how Jones will be deployed.
“Our job is to put together the best 13-man pitching staff we can,” Cherington said May 17. “We need to put the team first in that and we need everyone to sort of buy in to that, whatever that means. We need the 13 best pitchers on the team to win games consistently. Obviously, we believe Jared is one of those 13, and we certainly believe he’s a starting pitcher as we look at the future.”
Analysis
Kelly ruled out the possibility of a six-man rotation, as it would reduce the number of arms available in relief roles. The Pirates have blown 12 saves this season, and finding someone capable of thriving in a long-term bulk relief role would lessen the burden on both the starters and the high-leverage relievers. Pirates pitchers are eager for Jones to return, knowing that he adds another fireballer to a staff that can use a boost to its bullpen.
“We are excited to have him back,” Mlodzinski said. “I think he can definitely help out this team a lot.”
The Pirates will choose between Jones, Chandler and Mlodzinski, with the latter two the most likely candidates to move to the bullpen. Mlodzinski makes the most sense, given how much the splits favor his 94 appearances as a reliever against 26 as a starter.
But Chandler thrived in a bulk relief role last year, earning a four-inning save against Colorado in his MLB debut and wins over San Francisco and the Los Angeles Dodgers. He posted a 2.25 ERA with an 0.83 WHIP and .205 batting average against in three relief appearances. A move to the bullpen could take off some of the pressure he’s putting on himself to be perfect. Or it could break the confidence of one of their most talented young pitchers.
“In talking through everything and trying to figure out what’s best for the team,” Kelly said, “and finding a way to put ourselves in position, both in the rotation and bullpen, to help us win as many games as we can is what we’re going after.”