Maya MacGuineas has been calling for Social Security reform for decades, warning policymakers and everyday Americans that retirement benefits would be slashed if Congress didn’t act to shore up the program’s finances.
Her warnings haven’t been abstract.
For years, MacGuineas and the organization she leads, the Washington-based Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, has issued reports projecting when Social Security’s retirement trust fund would become insolvent, how much that would reduce payments and what steps could be taken to fix it.
Now, with the potential doomsday about six years on the horizon, MacGuineas said, “People are starting to pay more attention.”
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget issued a report this week projecting that Social Security’s retirement trust fund could dry up by 2032 — resulting in a 24% reduction in benefits for retirees, spouses, dependents and survivors. The trust fund has been used to cover the shortfall between the cost of payments and program revenues, which come mostly from payroll taxes.
For Pennsylvanians, average monthly payments would drop by an average of $519, the committee said.
“It would be an absolute crisis if that were allowed to happen. There would be people giving up food, giving up medicine, giving up shelter. It would be brutal,” MacGuineas said in an interview with TribLive. “There would be a huge outpouring of fury in this country.”
Nearly 2 in 5 seniors get all of their income from Social Security payments, according to a survey conducted last year by the Alexandria, Va.-based Senior Citizens League.
“I don’t think there’s a scenario where this would actually happen,” MacGuineas said of the trust fund being allowed to dry up. “That said, we’re so gridlocked. You could see Congress not figuring it out.”
The committee’s projections are in line with others.
The Congressional Budget Office predicted in February that the retirement trust fund would be exhausted in 2032.
Last June, the Social Security Administration said in its annual trustees report that the program would be able to provide full benefits until 2033. Then the retirement trust fund would be depleted, allowing Social Security to pay 77% of full benefits.
“Lawmakers have many options for changes that would reduce or eliminate the long-term financing shortfalls. Taking action sooner rather than later will allow consideration of a broader range of solutions and provide more time to phase in changes so that the public has adequate time to prepare,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Social Security Commissioner Frank J. Bisignano and now-former Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer wrote in the 2025 report.
The four officials all served as Social Security trustees.
Numerous proposals have been floated over the years to address the problem. They include increasing payroll taxes, raising the retirement age, changing how cost-of-living adjustment increases are calculated, removing or increasing the cap on which earners must pay Social Security taxes, and capping payments at $50,000 a year for single retirees and $100,000 for couples.
The ultimate solution is likely to include a mix of options that increase tax revenue and slow the growth of inflation, MacGuineas said.
“What we need is real political leadership that’s going to say, ‘These are the kinds of political choices we need to consider,” MacGuineas said. “They are not easy, but they are manageable and the payoff for doing them is incredibly important.’ We need more of our political leaders making that pitch to the American people.”
“There’s just not a lot of direct, honest discussion about this issue with the American people,” she added. “When there is political pressure, we pander. It’s easy to promise all the things we love, like tax cuts and spending increases.
“Even if people go out and say, ‘Listen, this is a huge problem,’ politicians tend to skirt around the solutions. That is not going to work.”
MacGuineas said she intends to continue working to bring attention to the issue — particularly on Capitol Hill. The House Ways and Means Committee (of which U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Butler, is a member) and Senate Finance Committee oversee the Social Security program, though MacGuineas said she maintains a spreadsheet with every member of Congress and tries to meet with all of them.
“Anyone who has political office should have a solution for the program or they should acknowledge their plan is a 24% benefit cut,” MacGuineas said. “The only wrong answer is, ‘I think we should continue to delay.’”