Do you think Mitch Keller would balk at pitching out of the bullpen?
I’m just asking, in case that question ever arises.
I’m also wondering if the Pirates could use a reliable veteran starter, preferably a lefty, as they continue to hover too close to .500 given their powerful offense.
It isn’t just the bullpen keeping this team from reaching its potential. Despite still ranking fourth in the NL in starters’ ERA, the rotation has sprung some leaks. Paul Skenes hasn’t been himself lately. Bubba Chandler has been disappointing, and Keller has disintegrated over the past month.
After getting shelled by the Atlanta Braves on Friday, Keller’s ERA is headed fast toward five (it stands at 4.81). It’s at 8.03 in his past five starts.
It would appear that Keller’s annual late-season slump has arrived early.
The Pirates had a chance to trade Keller last season and during the offseason. They should have. Instead, they are paying him $16.9 million. That salary rises to $18.4 million next season and $20.4 million in 2028.
That feels like a lot of money for a pitcher with a 47-68 career record and a 4.53 ERA.
Yes, Keller has pitched for some horrendous Pirates teams, which helps account for being 21 games under .500, but they’re better now — and they need him to be way better.
He’s supposed to be a metronome of the rotation — a guy you can always count on. And he does usually rank among the league leaders in quality starts, for whatever that statistic is worth (six innings and three runs is a 4.50 ERA for a game).
But he tends to blow up from time to time and wear down over the course of full seasons, as evidenced by his late-season ERAs in recent years.
They look like this:
2025
August: 6.52
September: 3.98
2024
August: 6.75
September: 6.66
2023
August: 4.20
September: 5.28
Let’s hope he’s getting that out of the way this season, because if those trends hold, you won’t want to see Keller’s ERA by late summer.
Chandler’s spot in the rotation continues to feel tenuous. He hasn’t been horrible, but he has rarely been good. Jared Jones is a work in progress. He was very good the other night in his second appearance.
The Pirates made the right choice in giving hugely talented newbies Chandler and Jones some leeway while moving Carmen Mlodzinski to the bullpen. They need to find out what they have there — although you can’t wait all summer. Not with a playoff spot hanging in the balance.
Skenes, meanwhile, is going through a much lighter and less worrisome rough patch — although for him it is a rough patch. He’d never made back-to-back poor starts until recently. He hasn’t looked himself for four straight straight starts and also hasn’t delivered a single pitch of 100 mph this season, which seems odd.
Having said that, Skenes is the last guy you worry about. He’s also a victim of his historically incredible success to this point. He has allowed 13 earned runs over these past four starts. He allowed 29 earned runs over his entire rookie season!
I would expect a monster June out of Skenes. And by the way, I’d also give him two days extra rest amid his struggles and pitch him Wednesday against Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Can you imagine the hype for that one? It would be the greatest pitching matchup in PNC Park history. It would also be one of the greatest regular-season matchups of the 21st century.
Ohtani, the best baseball player of all-time, will arrive with a laughable 0.74 ERA in 10 starts. He also has 10 home runs and a .925 OPS out of the leadoff spot.
It’s not ideal to disrupt Skenes’ routine. Then again, given his recent mini slump, it might be exactly what’s needed. An extra few days rest might invigorate him.
So might a start against Ohtani.