No VP pick? No problem. Experts see bright political future for Shapiro

If Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro ever wants to make his own presidential run for the White House, political observers agree that his recent turn in the national spotlight likely would help, not hinder, any future bid.

From delivering a stem-winder Tuesday night in Philadelphia to drawing comparisons to Barack Obama to exuding youthful vigor and a get-stuff-done attitude, Shapiro has earned accolades from the party faithful — and the Democratic machine is taking notice.

Political experts said Tuesday that although Shapiro lost the bid to be Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, the intense focus, praise and popularity he’s enjoyed has served only to boost his prospects.

Dan Mallison, associate professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg, said the national attention Shapiro drew as a top contender for the Democrats’ vice-presidential pick could benefit any White House ambitions Shapiro might harbor.

“I think in the long run, all of this is really good for Shapiro and his political future,” Mallison said. “This raised his profile in a way that would’ve been hard for him to do on his own. He still has national ambitions.”

First Jewish president?

Alison Dagnes has believed since Shapiro was elected as a Montgomery County commissioner in 2011 that he would one day be America’s first Jewish president.

Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University, saw in Shapiro a charismatic leader whose intelligence, pragmatism and ambition could propel him to the nation’s top office.

Although Shapiro was edged out by Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as Harris’ pick for her No. 2, Dagnes still believes Shapiro is poised to launch his own bid for the White House within the next couple of elections.

“It seems to me that Shapiro is young enough and ambitious enough that this potential run for him, certainly the national attention he received, is a net positive,” Dagnes said.

It introduced the nation to his platforms, Dagnes said, and helped him grow his national profile. He came out of the vetting process largely unscathed, with none of the attacks lobbed against him doing any significant damage.

While Harris made her Walz pick public Tuesday, people locally and around the nation are still questioning whether Shapiro was the better bet, Dagnes said.

She noted there were even reports — including from the New York Times — that Republicans were pleased Harris didn’t chose Shapiro because he seemed harder to beat in November, particularly in the crucial swing state he calls home.

“That is a beneficial narrative for anybody who’s interested in continuing to rise through the political ranks,” Dagnes said.

Dagnes and other experts said Shapiro could toss his hat in the ring in 2028 if Harris isn’t elected, or in 2032 if Harris defeats former President Donald Trump and seeks reelection in the next cycle.

“It seems to me that he has made thoughtful decisions about how to run, govern and comport himself in order to succeed in the political arena,” Dagnes said. “I think that’s why so many of the D.C. pundit class really saw him as a No. 1 for VP.”

Sneak peek

Despite being popular in Pennsylvania, Shapiro wasn’t well-known outside the state until he was thrust into the national limelight as a potential Harris running mate, said Stacy Rosenberg, a politics professor at Carnegie Mellon University.

Becoming a household name now, she said, better positions him to run for a national office in the future.

“He could potentially be a challenger for 2028 because he is now well-known nationally,” she said.

Shapiro had an opportunity to make his platforms and successes known to voters who might consider him for the Oval Office, said Berwood Yost, who oversees polling at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.

Another perk Shapiro received from the newfound national attention was a sneak-peek preview at the kind of criticisms he might face if he did launch his own presidential campaign, Yost said.

Shapiro can now develop a strategy to deal with the criticisms opponents leveled against him in recent weeks, like his handling of a former aide who was accused of sexual harassment. He faced criticisms for his vocal support of Israel, though several other top candidates for the role held similar views on the Middle East conflict.

Shapiro also may have gleaned better insights on how his platforms could play on a national stage.

“It probably points to some of the national party rifts he’s going to encounter when he does make that next step, should he take it,” Yost said.

‘On the radar’

Kate deGruyter, communications director for the national centrist Democratic think tank Third Way, agreed with local experts that Shapiro is gaining positive recognition among the country’s Democratic leaders, and he could be a strong candidate for future presidential runs.

“Honestly, it’s very obvious that he is an exceptional talent,” deGruyter said. “If the election doesn’t turn out in our favor, I imagine he would be a strong contender (in 2028).”

She said Shapiro, like most governors, wasn’t very well-known among voters outside of his home state. He likely improved his name recognition outside of Pennsylvania in recent weeks, she said, but it takes time and consistency to build a coast-to-coast reputation.

But, deGruyter said, Shapiro’s name already was familiar among Democratic leadership.

“I think certainly within the Washington crowd, Shapiro is a well-known leader,” she said, pointing to his quick work repairing a section of a major highway in Philadelphia that collapsed, his oratory skills and his ability to galvanize even those parts of Pennsylvania that are less likely to support Democrats. “I think he’s on the radar for a lot of national folks.”

Though some experts indicated Shapiro’s more moderate views cost him the vice president candidacy this year, deGruyter said she doesn’t think his centrist platform would be a liability in a national election — and she doesn’t think it factored into Harris’ decision, which she believes was based more on a personal connection with Walz than any Shapiro shortcomings.

“What we know is that Democrats win through the middle,” deGruyter said. “That was the Joe Biden experience. Moderate voters powered that ticket.”

Still, she said, it’s too soon to make any predictions about 2028 or 2032.

Blessing in disguise?

While in the national spotlight, Shapiro received what he called “kind of a weird insult” from J.D. Vance, the U.S. senator from Ohio who is Trump’s running mate.

Vance mocked Shapiro’s speech as “a really bad impression of Barack Obama.” Many have compared Shapiro’s cadence to Obama’s.

Shapiro later said he wasn’t sure the remark could be taken as an insult, given Obama is considered by many to be a magnificent orator.

Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenburg College in Allentown, said he thinks it may have helped Shapiro’s political future to be passed over for the vice-presidential candidacy.

“Will this be in the end a bit of a blessing in disguise for the governor?” Borick said. “He’d be turning his political future over largely to the ability of Harris to win this fall. It’s a hyper-competitive race. It seems an equal probability that campaign will not be victorious, and then you’re saddled with a loss on your record.”

Now, Shapiro will get to forge his own path, Borick said.

Experts agreed Shapiro likely will have an easy time winning reelection as Pennsylvania’s governor for a second term in 2026.

Then, Borick said, he would be a “top-tier” candidate to launch his own White House campaign on the top of the ticket without risking a major blemish on his record if the Harris campaign falters.

“For Shapiro, he finds himself in a position where he has more control over his future than he might’ve as a second on the ticket,” Borick said.

In the meantime, Shapiro will help campaign for the Harris/Walz ticket in the Keystone State, hoping to deliver the commonwealth’s crucial 19 electoral votes for the Democrats.

Biding his time

If Harris is elected, she’ll have a plethora of political appointments to fill. Shapiro could take one of those spots, said Kristen Coopie, director of pre-law at Duquesne University and a professor who has taught various political courses.

Whether Shapiro would accept a post in a Harris administration if offered one or would remain Pennsylvania’s governor, Coopie said she doesn’t see his national ambitions ending any time soon.

“He is still really young political timeline-wise,” she said of the 51-year-old governor. “He does have a future.”

The New York Times reported Shapiro’s presidential ambitions could have complicated his relationship with Harris and affected the pick for her No. 2. Walz, the newspaper reported, seemed more willing to brush aside personal ambition to do whatever it took to help Harris.

Several experts predicted that with the distraction of jockeying for a vice-presidential spot behind him, Shapiro will continue focusing on serving as Pennsylvania’s leader and seeking reelection.

The work he does in Pennsylvania, Dagnes said, could help propel him to loftier positions later.

Serving as the governor of the country’s largest swing state, she said, is great experience to trot out on a national platform.

Dagnes said she thinks Shapiro will focus on bipartisan dealmaking and steering clear of controversies. He’ll likely try to maximize on opportunities to garner positive publicity, like the national praise he received after quickly handling the highway collapse.

He’s also likely to focus on legislative issues that resonate with voters, like education, Dagnes said.

“I think he’s just going to keep hammering on those things that really do matter,” she said. “He’s going to stay away from the culture war stuff and stick to things people understand and care about.”

Then, Dagnes predicted, he’ll leverage that to help him win the White House.

“I’ve always thought he has what it takes,” she said.