Football Footnotes: Key matchups that will dictate the outcome of Steelers-Colts game

As the Pittsburgh Steelers get ready to square off against the Colts in Indianapolis on Sunday, there are three key matchups that will go a long way toward determining the outcome of the game.

For Friday’s Football Footnotes this week, let’s take a look at them — and a few eye-popping statistical nuggets to keep in mind as well.

1. Steelers’ rush defense vs. Colts’ rush attack

Last week the Steelers stuffed the Los Angeles Chargers running game, holding L.A. to 61 yards on the ground. Top running back J.K. Dobbins had only 44 yards on 15 carries.

Through the first two weeks, L.A. averaged an AFC-leading 197.5 rushing yards per game, and Dobbins was above 9 yards per attempt.

Now the Steelers have to replicate that effort against a dangerous Colts rush attack. Indy averages 5.4 yards per carry, tied for third-best in the NFL. Former All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor has 261 yards, seventh-best in the league.

“He’s got really good pick and vision. His burst is spectacular. His long speed is underrated,” head coach Mike Tomlin said. “His ability to produce big plays with that is a major component of what he does. But the patience initially is Bijan (Robinson)-like. … He’s just got a well-rounded game.”

Last year Tomlin’s team was gashed by the Colts’ running backs en route to a 30-13 loss, and Taylor didn’t even play. The Pittsburgh defense yielded 170 yards on the ground. Trey Sermon had 88 and Tyler Goodson had 69, season-highs for both players.

Then again, the Steelers were playing with a compromised Cameron Heyward that day. Patrick Queen was a Baltimore Raven. DeShon Elliott was a Miami Dolphin, and Payton Wilson was still in college.

This year, the Steelers won’t have Alex Highsmith. The outside linebacker will miss at least this game and likely more with a groin injury. That means Nick Herbig has to take over as a starter. He has been electric in the pass-rushing department. Between the preseason and regular season, he has 5.5 sacks in three games.

But at just 240 pounds, Herbig’s ability to help in run defense has always been questioned. Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin gave him a vote of confidence in that regard Thursday.

“I trust him,” Austin said. “He’s still a young guy, but I trust him as a football player. He has plenty of toughness to get out there and do the things that we need him to do.”

In two career games against the Steelers, Taylor has 160 yards on 38 carries (4.21 average) and three touchdowns. The Steelers won both games.

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2. Steelers’ running game vs. Colts’ rush defense

As we have mentioned, the Steelers’ ground game has yet to prove that it is going to be the force so many predicted it would be under new coordinator Arthur Smith.

Pittsburgh is second in the NFL in rushing attempts (108). That’s good.

The unit is 12th in rushing yards (392). That’s decent.

But it is tied for 27th in yards per carry (3.6). That’s bad.

Now they face an Indianapolis rush defense that was hideous the first two weeks before getting better last week against the Chicago Bears. Through their first two weeks of 2024, the Colts allowed a ghastly 474 yards on the ground. Via my Steelers Audio Network broadcast partner Matt Williamson, that’s the most rushing yards allowed by any team through two games since 1978.

Indianapolis bounced back, though, and held the Chicago Bears to just 63 rushing yards in Week 3. Steelers running back Najee Harris suggested that the result was more about Chicago’s preference to throw the ball (52 times) than rely on its run game (28 attempts).

“I think it was more the Bears,” Harris said. “(The Colts) did give up a lot of rushing yards to Houston and Green Bay. The defense of the Colts, I’m pretty sure they are aware of that, and they know the type of fight we bring. So it’s going to be one of those types of (tough) games again, and we are prepared for it.”

For Harris, he is still in search of his first 100-yard game of the season and his first touchdown of 2024.

3. Steelers vs. themselves early in games

Tomlin has already made it clear that he wants the team to be better offensively early in games. The club has yet to score more than 10 points in the first half of any game.

“We’ve got to get that solved and get it solved quickly,” Tomlin said Tuesday. “Lack of fluidity in our starts — three-and-outs and things of that nature — just doesn’t tee us up to play the type of ball that we desire to play.”

I’ve suggested that the Steelers need to let Justin Fields loose a bit more early in games. He went 11 for 11 to start the game against the Chargers last week but for only 64 yards.

I’ll make the same argument for the Steelers’ approach on first down and second down. Because on third downs, the Steelers are converting at a rate of 43.2%. That’s seventh-best in the NFL. Their 19 third-down conversions are tied for second-best in the NFL.

But they’ve attempted 44 third-down conversions. That’s the second most in football.

So, Arthur, how about advancing the chains earlier in down and distance situations so the offense isn’t in as many stressful third-down predicaments?

“We certainly tried. Sometimes those numbers can be misleading,” Smith insisted. “Sometimes when you’re calling, you’re trying to take a shot. The first play of the game (against L.A.) we were trying to take a shot and Justin had to scramble. … There are times we have pushed the ball down the field. It hasn’t come to life, whether it was the look or (we’ve) got to be cleaner in the detail — or they made a play and got off the spot. That’s happened. That’s a mix and match of what you’re calling, so some of the numbers don’t tell the story.”

That’s all well and good. But, again, as we pointed out heading into the Chargers games, Fields only had 12 passes beyond the sticks in the first eight quarters. Eight of those passes were completed.

Let him do a little more. Not just for the sake of game planning, but also to see if this is the guy you want to stick with at quarterback even when Russell Wilson gets healthy.

Listen: Tim Benz interviews Steelers ILB Patrick Queen