Meteorologists are calling it: Western Pennsylvania’s winter wonderland might be more like a no-snow zone this year.
Jared Rackley, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Moon, said temperatures will be above normal, but there’s really not a strong precipitation signal, meaning lots of snow is improbable.
“If anything it’ll be slightly wetter than average … end up with more rain than usual and not as much snow,” he said. “Not saying that we won’t see any snow, (but) you tend to see less of the bigger snow storms.”
Mike Harvey, meteorologist at WTAE, agreed.
“Even though we may have higher than average precipitation, seasonal temperatures will be above normal,” he said. “Without outbreaks of cold air, winter snowfall accumulations can be rather limited, and that appears to be the case this year.”
The first snowfall in the area tends to be sometime between mid-November to mid-December.
“We might have a chance for our first at least flurries late next week — probably not looking at a lot,” he said.
If not, there will be at least some snow by early December, Rackley said.
“In terms of a lot, it’s hard to say,” he said. “Last two years, we’ve had such small amount of snow, it would be hard to be less than that.”
Typically, the area averages 40 inches of snow per year, but Rackley said the past two years’ averages were much less, at 16.3 inches in 2023 and 17.6 in 2022, which were two of the lowest years on record.
Even though Western Pennsylvania likely won’t see lots of snow, he said it’s hard to be less than 16.3 inches.
“I would expect probably statistically to see more than the last few years but still lower end of range,” Rackley said. “We could end up with very little snow and one big storm that pushes our totals up, too.”
Harvey said where measurements are taken at the Pittsburgh International Airport, the city usually sees an average of 44.1 inches of snowfall each winter season.
“In the last two years combined, we have only seen 43.9 inches of snow,” he said. “The last time we had this limited amount of snow, it was the Great Depression, back in the 1933-34 winter season.”
Snowfall for Pittsburgh will be near 30 inches for the 2024-25 season, Harvey predicted, which is 14 inches below the seasonal average but over a foot more than the city saw last year.
For Allegheny County specifically, the snowfall range will be between 27 and 33 inches, he said. WTAE only does seasonal totals for Pittsburgh and Allegheny County, but Harvey said all locations across Western Pennsylvania can expect less than normal snowfall.
“You may need the occasional shovel,” he said, “but more likely the broom will take care of much of the snow falling this season.”
Declining snowfall
The United States is seeing an overall decrease in snowfall that’s been decades-long, the Washington Post reported. And this year will be no different.
Western Pennsylvania has been seeing the same trend, according to Rackley.
“For the past several decades, we’ve seen a downward trend on snowfall,” he said. “Some years you’ll have more than others, but looking at the last few decades, there’s definitely a downward trend.”
But why is it happening?
Over the past 60 years, the Post reported that as humans have added more than 2.3 trillion tons of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, the average global temperature has increased by about 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit. This warming has contributed to less snow in the United States and elsewhere, the Post said.
Rackley said the forecasted less snow is what’s typically seen in a winter season affected by the La Niña climate pattern.
Harvey said La Niña is the major player in the winter season.
“In a La Niña season, the jet stream is generally positioned across the northern portions of the United States,” he said.
During the pattern, the northwest and north central portions of the United States tend to see the most snowfall,” Harvey said.
“Typically, in Western Pennsylvania we can expect slightly more precipitation,” he said. “The question: Will we have enough polar outbreaks of frigid air to turn that precipitation into snow and make our winter season a white one?”