Armstrong County officials have proposed a 33% real estate tax increase to cover a long-standing budget shortfall.

Officials unveiled their $26.5 million preliminary spending plan last week.

The millage rate would go from 15 to 20 mills, meaning the owner of a home assessed at the county median value of $18,600 would pay $372 a year in taxes. That would be a $93 increase.

The last property tax increase came in 2016.

Without a tax hike, the county would be looking at a $3.9 million deficit.

That deficit exists even though the draft budget includes a $1.2 million reduction in expenses compared to this year and an additional $4.6 million in property tax revenue.

Officials were able to paper over the gap the last few years with help from $18.4 million in federal pandemic relief funds.

That covid-19 money has since dried up, necessitating spending cuts, a tax increase or some combination of the two.

Aaron Poole, the county’s chief administrator, cited inflation, a shrinking population and challenges attracting employees as reasons “this increase is unfortunately needed to maintain crucial services.”

The draft budget sets aside $8.4 million for corrections and probation, $6 million for courts, $5.1 million for administration and $1.4 million for culture, recreation and economic development. Employee benefits, human services, public works and public safety also take up sizable chunks of the plan.

Recent budget cycles have come as a reckoning for many counties in Southwestern Pennsylvania that relied on federal pandemic stimulus to offset stagnant revenues and rising costs.

Allegheny County, for example, might be headed toward at least a 28.5% property tax increase. Indiana County has tentatively approved a 7% hike, and Clarion County is expected to tack on another 9% to its real estate taxes.

And last year, a 32.5% rise in property taxes went through in Westmoreland County.

At least some Armstrong County officials believe they can shave a mill or two off the proposed hike.

Commissioner Pat Fabian has put forth an additional $1.6 million in cuts not affecting core services.

The biggest savings would come from axing a $750,000 allocation for the Armstrong County Industrial Development Council.

Fabian also wants to reduce a proposed $6,000 buyout for employees who do not enroll in county health insurance and raise premium contributions from 10% to 15%. In addition, he has called for the elimination of part-time and currently vacant positions as well as strict enforcement of vehicle policies to tamp down fuel costs.

Commissioner Anthony Shea said he was in favor of pushing buyouts, though he didn’t specify his preferred price. He also wants to do another pass through on the budget to find additional efficiencies.

“We have looked at everything we can cut,” he said. “We’re still looking. Nobody wants to do a tax increase.”

Commissioner John Strate did not return a request for comment.

Officials say whatever tax increase emerges should buy the county a few years, but more development will be needed for a more sustainable long-term trajectory.

Fabian blamed sluggish growth for the current predicament, even as he pointed to encouraging signs ahead.

“We haven’t seen the growth in this county that I was anticipating,” Fabian said. “Some of that is related to the pandemic; some of that is related to bad luck and the competitiveness out there.”

Property reassessment isn’t off the table for him, either. Armstrong County last went through the process in 1997.

Final budget passage is set for Dec. 19. Copies of the draft document are available online and at the county building, 450 E. Market St.