The Meta Quest 3S virtual headset is prominently featured on the front of the Target Black Friday flyer. At Walmart, kids may be clamoring for the Hot Wheels hot deal. Kohl’s is cutting the price on Beats by Dr. Dre headphones in half and kicking in some Kohl’s Cash to boot.
These are the kinds of things kids, teens and adults may delight to find under the tree. But enjoy these rock-bottom sales while they last.
None of these products is made in the U.S. They make their way to American stores and then to American homes from China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Peru and India.
The headphones are the closest thing to a domestic product. Lithium for the batteries is mined in South America. The batteries are then created in Asia. Those and other pieces are sent to California, where they are assembled like a jigsaw puzzle and packaged under the premium headphone company’s name.
From electronics and toys to tools and kitchen appliances, the Black Friday sales are rife with deep discounts on products likely to be hit hard by Donald Trump’s promised tariffs in the coming year. Black Friday 2025 could look very different.
These could take effect quickly. The majority of Mattel’s manufacturing takes place in Mexico and China — two of the three countries singled out by Trump in an announcement this week.
“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders,” Trump shared on his Truth Social platform.
This would rip the seams that stitched the U.S. to its neighbors in Trump’s own United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement signed in 2018 after his first-term experiment with tariffs.
China could face even more. His most recent post promised 10% on top of existing tariffs on the country.
Other countries are unnamed but have been put on notice. In October, in an event with the Economic Club of Chicago, Trump promised tariffs of up to 2,000% on foreign cars. A 2024 Toyota Corolla has a sticker price of around $22,000. A 100% tariff would double that, taking an affordable vehicle into full-size pickup territory. At 2,000%, it’s like a four-bedroom, 3-bath house in Pittsburgh’s Highland Park.
With January implementation, the tariff impact wouldn’t have to wait for next Black Friday to be seen. Americans get much of their sugar, avocados and other fruits and vegetables from Mexico. Mexico and Canada supply the U.S. with beef and car parts. Canada, not the Middle East, is America’s largest supplier of imported oil.
What the tariffs end up being, how long they last and their impact is just speculation right now. The speculation is its own problem, as businesses and consumers alike don’t know how to prepare for their everyday needs.
But we can make some educated guesses about the cost of Christmas 2025. And we have time to prepare, either by saving up, adjusting expectations or preparing the kids to get a lump of domestically produced coal.