When ESPN Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi posted his latest round of NCAA Tournament projections Monday afternoon, Pitt wasn’t among the last group of teams in the dance.
They weren’t in the group of the “first four” teams out of it. They weren’t in the next group of four out, either.
The Panthers were in the last spot of the final four teams who were even mentioned. Essentially, that’s 80th in the 68-team race.
The Panthers began the week 51st in the NET rankings. Yet, they began Monday behind five teams lower than that NET ranking (Indiana, Xavier, Kansas State, U.C. Irvine and Boise State) in Lunardi’s projections.
The Panthers aren’t going to impress selection committee members with a lot of big-time wins down the stretch. Jeff Capel’s team faces just one more ranked team the rest of the way in ACC competition. That’s a road date at No. 25 Louisville on March 1. Aside from that contest, the Panthers battle teams who are just about even with them in the conference standings, or beneath them.
That makes Tuesday’s game against a stumbling Syracuse team the second in a long line of “can’t lose” games to close out the 2024-25 regular season.
OK. “Must win” versus “can’t lose.” I’m word-policing myself to a degree. And, honestly, with the entirety of the ACC Tournament still looming, neither phrase is exactly true.
But you get the picture. Pitt isn’t in a position where they are going to make anyone’s eyes pop with any individual victory aside from that potential upset of Louisville to open next month. But they will surely draw attention if they lose any of them.
As of now, with the exception of that Louisville game, the Panthers’ next best opponent is Georgia Tech. That’ll be a home game for the 15-10 Panthers (6-8 in ACC play). The Yellow Jackets are 13-13 and 7-8 in conference results. Every other opponent they are slated to face (Syracuse, Notre Dame, N.C. State and Boston College) is currently sub-.500 and below them in the ACC standings.
That’s in the wake of beating Miami on Saturday, 74-65. The Hurricanes are in last place of the ACC at 6-19, 2-12 in conference.
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So the Panthers at least have the chance to rack up wins by taking care of business against those they should beat. Capel’s club should add at least five wins to its resume and perhaps six if they can surprise Louisville. That’d get Pitt to at least 20 wins entering the ACC Tournament.
Keep in mind that 21 regular season wins, plus one ACC Tournament victory, wasn’t enough to get Pitt into the NCAA Tournament a year ago with a NET ranking of 41.
Part of Pitt’s problem this year is that they are just 1-8 in Quad 1 games. That means the margin for error for the Panthers is none. No slip-ups. No stubbing your toe against lesser competition.
The next example of that competition comes to the Petersen Events Center on Tuesday in the form of a Syracuse Orange team that is leaking oil. The Orange (11-15, 5-10) have dropped six of their last eight. One of those defeats was to lowly Miami. Coach Adrian Autry and company limp into the Oakland Zoo in a tie for 14th in the ACC. Only the top 15 make the conference’s tournament.
Syracuse has only one win against a team that’s above them in the standings. That was a 62-55 victory over Georgia Tech on Jan. 7. Syracuse’s defense (78.6 points allowed per game) is 17th of 18 ACC teams, ahead of only Miami (79.9). At 32.3% from the 3-point arc, the Orange are 15th from long distance. They also commit 12.4 turnovers per game, third most in the ACC.
Not to mention that the Orange hasn’t had freshman Donnie Freeman since a loss at Florida State on Jan. 4. He was averaging 13.4 points and 7.9 rebounds before suffering a season-ending foot injury. The Panthers won the first meeting between the schools in Central New York by a final score of 77-73.
The late Al Davis, a former Syracuse student and long-time owner of the Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders, coined the phrase “Just win, baby.” That’s got a better ring to it than, “Dude, just don’t screw up.” But that’s largely where Pitt’s team is right now.
Getting a little help along the way from some other teams losing wouldn’t hurt either. For now, though, just taking care of business against a very beatable opponent on Tuesday would be a good next step.