A popular expression of Pope Francis was his phrase “the God of surprises.” That phrase was often turned against Francis by critics. He was notorious for grabbing a microphone on an airplane and sloppily saying something off the cuff to reporters that seemed to instantly threaten two millennia of church teaching. Such exasperating if not infuriating moments prompted detractors to derisively refer to Francis as “the pope of surprises.”
And yet, a big surprise for Francis’ critics and supporters alike may soon come posthumously when the cardinals assemble to choose his successor. The prevailing wisdom is that, because Francis “stacked” the conclave with his preferred appointments, his successor will be “liberal” like him.
I wouldn’t be so sure.
For the record, I loathe the labels “liberal” and “conservative” to describe a pope, including Francis, whose papacy left liberals and conservatives confused and dissatisfied. Neither side was clear or happy with the often seemingly contradictory statements by Francis and unclear direction in which he steered the Roman Catholic Church.
But, that said, of the 135 cardinals eligible to vote in the next conclave, Pope Francis appointed roughly 80% of them. Thus, the argument goes, Francis’ successor will be like Francis.
But again, I wouldn’t bet on that. Here’s why you might be surprised.
Look at the recent history of the papacy — that is, the past 100 years. The two so-called “liberal” popes, Francis and John XXIII, were picked by conclaves created by a succession of “conservative” popes (again, I don’t like those terms). John XXIII was the Vatican II pope, whose short papacy went from 1958-63. Many traditionalists feel Vatican II derailed the church, allowing radical reformers to remake it in their own image. Nonetheless, the John XXIII conclave came from a long string of traditional popes: Pius X (1903-14), Benedict XV (1914-22), Pius XI (1922-39) and Pius XII (1939-58).
As for Pope Francis, he was preceded by Pope John Paul II (1978-2005) and Pope Benedict XVI (2005-13). The conclave filled by those two “conservative” popes selected the “liberal” Francis.
Moving to 2025, of the 108 cardinal electors Francis appointed, many are from what he called “the periphery.” They’re not from the West. The Francis picks from Western Europe and North America have been the more liberal ones, particularly in America. Germany hosts the most radical cardinals — so much so that even Francis eventually slapped them down. The Francis “periphery” picks from Asia and Africa are not focused on the culture-war issues plaguing the West — gender, marriage, sexuality. Those cardinals aren’t known to be especially liberal, as those issues aren’t hot-button topics in their homelands.
Finally, a key factor in Francis getting picked by the 2013 conclave created by John Paul II and Benedict XVI was the scheming of a group of rebel cardinals known as the St. Gallen Mafia, of which articles and books have been written. That cabal plotted in an underhanded way that John Paul II had forewarned about and tried to create rules to prevent. I’m told by a source close to one cardinal that such scheming will not happen again. Everyone in the conclave is on alert for it, precisely because of the plotting of the St. Gallen Mafia. Such conniving is the theme of the ridiculous recent movie by the very name “Conclave.”
In the meantime, prepare to be surprised. This pope of surprises might leave us with a big surprise with his successor.