For many successful Major League Baseball rookies, Year 2 can be a challenge. The league figures out what you do well and counters it.
“There is definitely adjust-and-adjust-back. Year 2 was definitely tougher for me than year Year 1,” Cubs veteran Ian Happ said Tuesday. “Pitchers did a good job of high fastballs coming into the game. That made it tough for me the second time through. It’s part of it, making that adjustment back.”
Fortunately for the Mt Lebanon High School product, he has carved out a very good MLB career, making an All-Star game and winning three Gold Gloves.
To his point, though, the outfielder finished eighth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2017. But he saw his OPS dip from .842 to .761 in his second year. His home run total dropped from 24 to 15. His batting average fell from .253 to .233. He drove in 24 fewer runs and struck out 38 more times.
So far in 2025, Pirates Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes hasn’t had quite as rough of a time in his second season. As he prepares to face Happ and the National League Central-leading Cubs on Thursday at PNC Park, Skenes will take the mound at 3-2 with a 2.39 ERA and a strikeout ratio of 39:4. His WHIP is .80, and batters are hitting only .190 against him.
Most pitchers would kill for those numbers. But after going 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA last year, it’s evident that even Skenes isn’t immune from taking a bit of a counterpunch from the rest of the league.
”They’ve all kind of seen my stuff, so at this point, it’s just more of a cat-and-mouse game,” Skenes said Tuesday. “Over the course of last season, we probably saw every approach that could happen. Now it’s just a matter of recognizing it when we get into a game.”
Diversification of Skenes’ arsenal of pitches has helped at times this year as well.After his most recent outing Friday, both he and manager Derek Shelton spoke about how Skenes was best served using his array of breaking pitches that day as opposed to leaning on his trademark velocity.
PAUL SKENES ????
He strikes out Shohei Ohtani with this ridiculous curveball ???? pic.twitter.com/6q6DW7jKmn
— MLB (@MLB) April 26, 2025
“I think we saw it the other day in L.A., the use of the curveball.The ability to execute different pitches, ability to show different game plans,” Shelton said Tuesday.
Skenes used the curve effectively against the Dodgers even though (according to Baseball Savant) he had only thrown it 5.5% of the time this season, down by half from a year ago. However, he threw 17 of them in Los Angeles en route to a 3-0 win in which the right-hander struck out nine, walked none and only gave up five hits while pitching shutout-ball into the seventh inning.
“That’s where he’s elite,” Shelton continued. “It’s his ability, especially at 22, to be able to disseminate how he’s going to break down a game, and then also realize what’s working that day, and he’s fortunate that he’s got multiple weapons to actually attack people.”
When it comes to the league getting familiar with his stuff, Skenes got a taste of the “cat-and-mouse game” he referenced against the Cubs last year. He faced Chicago four times throughout his rookie season.
“It’s a challenge. You play four series against a team. Hewasn’t with us until May. He got them all four times. He showed that ability last year. I think we saw him use different pitches at different times,” Shelton said. “His aptitude and ability to adjust is one of the things that makes him elite.”
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In those games versus the Cubs, Skenes went 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA, striking out 30 and walking eight. Cubs batters hit .203 against him. For his part, Happ saw Skenes adapt as the season went along in those four starts against his club in 2024.
“The splitter. The (splinker). That showed up a little more. The fastball command was really good the last three starts we had him. He’s a good pitcher. He has had a ton of success,” Happ said. “There are some differences too, this year — pitch mix and usage. We’ll have to get to work on that.”
One thing Skenes has learned in his second campaign is to avoid over-adjusting to what hitters have learned about his approach.
“At the end of the day, you’ve got to do what you do well,” Skenes added. “You can pitch to their weaknesses all you want, but you’ve got to kind of default to your own strengths. You can add stuff butit’s just about how you use it alltogether.”
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He’s also trying to avoid getting too caught up in mimicking what other pitchers do. For instance, Skenes was asked about potentially watching the Cubs’ Shota Imanaga, who pitched against the Pirates on Tuesday.
“Looking at a low-release, high-slot lefty who throws 90 to 93-94 with a splitter that’s just about the exact opposite of my repertoire?I’ll take what I can,” Skenes allowed.
But …
“I find I’m pretty good at doing what I do. I’m not as good at understanding what other people do if that makes sense.”
It does. And what makes perfect sense at this point for Skenes is to just keep doing what he does well.
Which is a lot.